Tehran (Caasimada Online) – Iran ayaa ku hanjabtay inay maraakiibta dagaalka ee ciidamada badda Mareykanka ka mamnuuci doonto inay maraan marin-biyoodka Hormuz, iyadoo arrintaas qeyb uga dhigeysa heshiis lagu doonayo in dib loogu furo marin-biyoodka, islamarkaana sii riixeysa hadafkeeda ah in la yareeyo joogitaanka militari ee Mareykanka ee tobannaan sano ka jiray Gacanka Faaris.
Hanjabaadda Tehran ayaa muujineysa sida xubnaha mayalka adag ee ku jira hoggaanka Iran, gaar ahaan kuwa Ciidanka Ilaalada Kacaanka Islaamiga ah, ay saameyntoodu u sii xoogeysaneyso. Kooxahan ayaa muddo dheer ku baaqayay in ciidamada Mareykanka laga saaro gobolka.
Inkasta oo Iran ay dagaalka kala kulantay jab militari oo aad u culus, madaxdeedu waxay hadda u arkaan wada-hadallada lagu doonayo in lagu soo afjaro dagaalka lixda bilood socday fursad ay Mareykanka kaga riixi karaan kaalinta awoodda ugu weyn ee Gacanka Faaris.
Saraakiisha Iran ayaa hanjabaaddan si fagaare ah u soo bandhigay iyadoo ay socdaan wada-hadallo ay Cumaan la leedahay Tehran. Cumaan, oo ku taalla xeebta koonfureed ee Hormuz, ayaa hoggaamineysa dadaallada dhex-dhexaadinta.
Saraakiisha Mareykanka ayaa dhex-dhexaadiyeyaasha u sheegay in Washington aysan aqbali doonin xayiraad ay Iran saarto maraakiibta Hormuz maraysa ama lacago laga qaado. Arrintan ayaa ka mid ah dhowr khilaaf oo waaweyn oo u dhexeeya Washington iyo Tehran oo dib u dhigay dhammeystirka heshiiska.
Marka dhinaca militariga laga eego, falanqeeyayaal iyo saraakiil hore oo sare oo militari ayaa sheegaya in Iran aysan u badneyn inay awood u yeelato inay ciidamada badda Mareykanka ka hor istaagto Gacanka haddii Washington go’aansato inay maraakiibteeda marsiiso Hormuz.
Pentagon-ka ayaa bishii Abriil, xilli dagaalku marayay heerkiisii ugu sarreeyay, laba markab oo ciidamada badda Mareykanka ah oo ku hubeysan gantaallada la hago mariyay Hormuz.
Trump oo wajahaya imtixaan
Hase yeeshee, iyadoo Iran ay soo bandhigeyso dalabyo aad u sarreeya, Tehran waxaa laga yaabaa inay tijaabineyso sida Madaxweyne Donald Trump uu diyaar ugu yahay inuu dagaalka dib u bilaabo, ama uu doorbido waddo uu uga baxo xiisadda, xitaa haddii taas macnaheedu yahay inuusan markiiba ka hor imaan isku dayga Iran ee lagu doonayo in Mareykanka looga xiro Gacanka.
Jonathan Panikoff, oo horay u ahaa sarkaal sare oo ka tirsan sirdoonka Mareykanka haddana ka tirsan Atlantic Council, ayaa sheegay in wax kasta oo Trump sameeyo, natiijada aasaasiga ahi ay noqon doonto “in Iran ay si dhab ah u hesho awood weyn oo ay ku maamusho marin-biyoodka.”
Maamulka Trump ayaa aqbali kara oo keliya nidaam Hormuz ka dhaqan gala oo Iran aysan wax lacago ama khidmad ah ku qaadin, isla markaana aysan cidna ka hor istaagi karin inay marto marin-biyoodka, sida uu sheegay sarkaal Mareykan ah. Wuxuu intaas ku daray in waddooyin gaar ah oo loo asteeyo maraakiibta ay noqon doonaan kuwo ku-meel-gaar ah.
Sarkaal kale oo Mareykan ah ayaa sheegay in Washington ay qaadi doonto xannibaadda ay saartay dekedaha Iran haddii Tehran ay Hormuz furto iyadoo aan carqalad lagu sameyn maraakiibta.
Trump ayaa Khamiistii wariyeyaasha u sheegay in Hormuz “si uun hadda u furan yahay” sababo la xiriira xannibaadda Mareykanka.
Wuxuu qiray in Iran ay “mar walba wax toogan karto, wax sameyn karto ama miino dhigi karto”, isagoo sheegay in xitaa hal miino oo marin-biyoodka taalla ay jahwareer weyn abuuri karto, maadaama shirkadaha maraakiibta aysan dooneyn inay maraakiibtooda balaayiinka dollar ku kacaya halis geliyaan.
Is-afgaradkii Trump iyo Iran ay saxiixeen bishii Juun ayaa isna lagu doonayay in Hormuz dib loo furo, loona gogol xaaro wada-hadallo qoto dheer iyo ugu dambeyn soo afjaridda dagaalka.
Hase yeeshee, is-afgaradkaas ayaa burburay kaddib markii Iran ay weerarro ku qaaday maraakiib, iyadoo isku dayeysay inay xoojiso maamulkeeda marin-biyoodka.
Qabyo-qoraalka heshiiska
Qabyo-qoraalka heshiiska Hormuz ayaa dhigaya in si ku-meel-gaar ah loo sameeyo marin ay maraakiibta soo galaysa isticmaalaan oo u dhow Iran iyo marin kale oo maraakiibta baxaysa ah oo u dhow Cumaan, inkasta oo hoggaanka sare ee Iran uusan weli ansixin heshiiska.
Heshiisku wuxuu gacan ka geysan karaa dib u soo celinta qulqulka tamarta ee Hormuz iyo yareynta cadaadiska saaran dhaqaalaha caalamka.
Hase yeeshee, dalalka Carabta ee shidaalka dhoofiya ee Gacanka, inkasta oo ay ka daaleen dagaal dhaawac weyn u geystay dhaqaalahooda, ayaa ka walaacsan in heshiisku Iran siiyo awood joogto ah oo ay ku yeelato marin-biyoodka laf-dhabarta u ah dhaqaalahooda.
Diblomaasiyiinta Iran, oo cadaadis kala kulmaya Ilaalada Kacaanka, ayaa ku adkeysanaya in tallaabooyin dheeraad ah loo baahan yahay ka hor inta Hormuz si buuxda dib loogu furin. Waxaa ka mid ah in la fududeeyo cunaqabateynta shidaalka Iran iyo in Mareykanku qaado xannibaadda dekedaha Iran.
Maraakiibta Israel ayaa sidoo kale laga mamnuuci doonaa inay maraan Hormuz, sida lagu sheegay warbixin ay baahisay wakaaladda Fars News Agency oo xiriir la leh Ilaalada Kacaanka.
Waxaa sidoo kale la mamnuuci doonaa maraakiib ama xamuul lala xiriirinayo tallaabooyin ka dhan ah kooxaha hubeysan ee gobolka ee ay Iran taageerto.
Dalalka loo arko inay Iran waxyeello gaarsiiyeen ayaa laga doonayaa inay magdhow bixiyaan ka hor inta aan loo oggolaan inay maraan marin-biyoodka.
Dowladda Iran iyo militarigeeda ayaa sidoo kale maamuli doona hagidda iyo isu-socodka maraakiibta, sida ay sheegtay Fars, oo intaas ku dartay in shuruudahaasi ku jiraan hindise sharciyeed ay dib u eegayaan Golaha Sare ee Amniga Qaranka Iran.
Ali Vaez, oo ah agaasimaha mashruuca Iran ee Crisis Group, ayaa sheegay in mamnuucidda maraakiibta dagaalka ay udub-dhexaad u tahay dalabyada Tehran.
“Maamulka Iran waxaa loogu talagalay inuu siiyo qalab ay uga hor istaagi karto maraakiibta cadowga ah,” ayuu yiri Vaez.
Dhex-dhexaadiyeyaasha ayaa sheegay in heshiiska Iran iyo Cumaan uusan ku jirin qodobadaas ay Fars soo bandhigtay.
Hase yeeshee, waxay dalabyada Iran si dhab ah u qaateen kaddib markii saraakiisha Tehran ay u gudbiyeen dhex-dhexaadiyeyaasha Carabta, taas oo dib u dhac ku keentay wada-hadallada, islamarkaana muujisay sida Ilaalada Kacaanka uga go’an tahay inay soo afjarto maritaanka aan xadidneyn ee Hormuz.
Maamul ay Iran ku yeelato Hormuz wuxuu adkeyn karaa mashaariic badan oo dhaqaale iyo amni oo Gacanka ka socda.
Qiyaastii shan-meelood meel shidaalka dunida ayaa caadi ahaan mara Hormuz, waxaana sidoo kale marin-biyoodka mara gaaska dabiiciga ah ee dareeraha ah ee Qatar oo qiimihiisu sanadkii gaarayo tobannaan bilyan oo dollar.
Dubai ayaa iyaduna ganacsi maraakiib oo faa’iido badan leh ka maamusha dekedda Jebel Ali oo ku dhow marin-biyoodka.
Joogitaanka Mareykanka
Joogitaanka joogtada ah ee ciidamada badda Mareykanka ee Gacanka wuxuu dib ugu laabanayaa 1971, markaas oo Mareykanku la wareegay saldhig ay Britain ku lahayd Bahrain, kaas oo markii dambe noqday xarunta Taliska Shanaad ee Ciidamada Badda Mareykanka.
Joogitaanka militari ee Mareykanka ee Gacanka ayaa tobannaan sano ee xigay sii ballaartay, isagoo gaaray 30,000 oo askari oo ku kala sugan saldhigyo ku yaalla Kuwait, Sacuudi Carabiya, Qatar iyo Imaaraadka Carabta.
Hase yeeshee, weerarrada Iran ku qaaday saldhigyadaas ayaa Pentagon-ka ku qasbay inuu ciidamo dib u kala raro, isla markaana si weyn ugu tiirsanaado saldhigyo ka baxsan Gacanka oo ka nuglaan yar weerarrada.
Isbeddelkaas ayaa muujinaya sida dagaalku durba wax uga beddelay qaabka ciidamada Mareykanka ee gobolka.
“Waxay durba si wax ku ool ah nooga saareen Gacanka Faaris marka laga hadlayo awood militari oo la adeegsan karo,” ayay tiri Rosemary Kelanic, oo madax ka ah Barnaamijka Bariga Dhexe ee Defense Priorities, kana mid ah dadka dhaliila joogitaanka militari ee Mareykanka ee Bariga Dhexe.
Bilowgii dagaalka, Iran ayaa ku dhawaaqday xilli cusub oo ay ku maamuli doonto Hormuz.
Madaxda Tehran ayaa xakameynta marin-biyoodka u arka dammaanad amni oo la mid ah barnaamijkooda nukliyeerka iyo kaydkooda gantaallada.
Iran ayaa sameysay hay’ad dowladeed oo lagu magacaabo Persian Gulf Strait Authority, waxayna dalbatay in milkiilayaasha maraakiibta ay hay’adda iska diiwaangeliyaan si ay Hormuz uga gudbaan, isla markaana ay lacag caymis ah bixiyaan.
Mareykanka ayaa cunaqabateyn saaray hay’addaas, isagoo ku hanjabay ciqaab shirkad kasta oo maraakiib ah oo la macaamisha.
Inkasta oo Mareykanku diidan yahay in Iran ay maamusho marin-biyoodka, ciidamada badda Mareykanka ayaa intii dagaalku socday marar kooban oo keliya halis u galay inay galaan Gacanka Faaris, howlgaladaasna waxay ahaayeen kuwo muddo gaaban socday.
Shirkadaha maraakiibta ganacsiga ayaa iyaguna ka caga-jiidaya inay Hormuz maraan iyagoo aan helin dammaanad ah in Iran aysan weerari doonin.
Guud ahaan, isu-socodka Hormuz ayaa si weyn u curyaamay.
Xubnaha mayalka adag ee Tehran ayaa sheegaya inay dhaqan gelin doonaan dalabyadooda.
Mowqifka adag ee Iran
Mohsen Rezaei, oo ah taliye hawlgab ah oo ka tirsanaa Ilaalada Kacaanka isla markaana la-taliye dhow u ah Hoggaamiyaha Sare Mojtaba Khamenei, ayaa Khamiistii sheegay in Iran aysan oggolaan doonin in waddooyin kale laga sameeyo marin-biyoodka.
Chris Long, oo horay uga tirsanaa ciidamada badda Britain ee Gacanka Faaris, haddana madax ka ah sirdoonka shirkadda la-talinta maraakiibta ee Neptune P2P Group, ayaa sheegay inuu filayo in qulqulka tamarta ee marin-biyoodka uu “sannado badan ahaan doono mid gaabis ah oo hooseeya.”
Saraakiisha Khaliijka ayaa qiraya in heshiiska la soo jeediyay uu Tehran siinayo maamul Hormuz ah, isla markaana maamulkaasi uu noqon karo mid joogto ah, balse waxay sheegayaan in xilligan ay tahay ikhtiyaarka ugu wanaagsan ee ay haystaan.
Ilaalada Kacaanka ayaa muujisay inay diyaar u tahay inay xiisadda sii kordhiso, islamarkaana dagaalka ka dhigto mid sida ugu macquulsan qaali ugu noqda xulafada Mareykanka ee gobolka.
Dalalka Khaliijka ayaa durba eegaya qorshayaal ay Hormuz uga leexan karaan, iyagoo ballaarinaya dhuumaha shidaalka ee taga Badda Cas iyo Gacanka Cumaan, isla markaana kordhinaya maalgashiga kaydka shidaalka ee dibadda.
Hase yeeshee, saraakiisha gobolka ayaa sheegaya in waddooyinka kale aysan ka hortagi karin in Ilaalada Kacaanka ay weerarto kaabayaasha tamarta haddii aan la helin heshiis nabadeed oo lagu kalsoonaan karo.