Washington (Caasimada Online) — Markii Madaxweyne Donald Trump uu mar kale u muuqday inuu ka laabtay hanjabaad militari oo ka dhan ahayd Tehran, wuxuu fursad cusub siiyay sheekada ay madaxda Iran doonayaan inay dunida ka dhaadhiciyaan: Iran ma aha cidda dagaalka ka baqaysa — Trump ayaa ka baqaya.
Hoggaanka Iran wuxuu aaminsan yahay inuu helay meesha ay dunidu ka nugushahay. Tehran, oo kaashanaysa maleeshiyaad ay xulafo yihiin oo ku sugan gobolka, waxay toddobaadkii lasoo dhaafay muujisay inay halis gelin karto qaar ka mid ah xarumaha tamarta iyo marin-biyoodyada ugu muhiimsan caalamka.
Iran waxay sidoo kale sii kordhisay cadaadiska ay ku hayso Washington, xilli labada dhinac ay isku hayaan goorta iyo sida loo joojin karo colaadda dib u soo cusboonaatay, looguna noqon karo heshiiskii muddada gaaban jiray ee lagu billaabi lahaa wada-hadallo nabadeed, kaas oo burburay bishii hore.
Markii Trump uu maalmihii lasoo dhaafay muujiyay in weerar weyn uu dhow yahay haddii Iran aysan sameyn wax tanaasul ah, laba mas’uul oo hore oo Iiraani ah ayaa sheegay in hoggaanka Tehran uu si cad ugu jawaabay: samee.
“Waxay diyaar u yihiin dagaalka, dibna uma laabanayaan,” ayuu yiri Amir al-Mousawi, oo ah diblomaasi hore oo Iiraani ah.
Al-Mousawi wuxuu sheegay inuu dhammaadka toddobaadka la kulmay kooxda ku dhow madaxa wada-xaajoodyada Iran, ahna guddoomiyaha Baarlamaanka, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Sida uu sheegay, mas’uuliyiin Mareykan iyo Iiraani ah ayaa dhammaadka toddobaadka fariimo isweydaarsaday, kuwaas oo loo sii mariyay mas’uuliyiin ka tirsan Pakistan iyo Qatar.
Wuxuu sheegay in Trump uu ku hanjabay weerar culus oo lagu qaado kaabayaasha rayidka, sida xarumaha korontada, haddii Iran aysan dib ugu laaban wada-hadallada.
Iran ayaa diidday, ayuu yiri, waxayna ku adkeysatay in Washington ay marka hore ku noqoto “is-afgaradkii” hore, kaas oo khubaro badan ay sheegeen inuu Tehran u janjeeray.
“Wax dhib ah kuma qabno dagaalka, waxaana diyaar u nahay iska-horimaad weyn,” ayuu al-Mousawi sheegay in Iran ay Mareykanka ku tiri.
“Trump wuxuu Iran ku yiri: ‘Waxaan weerari doonaa korontadiinna.’ Iran-na waxay ugu jawaabtay: ‘Haddii aad na weerartaan, annaguna waan idin weerareynaa.’”
Sasan Karimi, oo hore xil sare uga soo qabtay dowladda Iran, haddana cilmiga Iran ka dhiga Jaamacadda Tehran, wuxuu sheegay in madaxda Tehran ay fahmeen habka uu Trump u adeegsado wada-xaajoodyada.
“Mar kasta oo fariimo la isweydaarsado, Trump wuxuu billaabaa inuu xaaladda cadaadis saaro, isaga oo Iran u hanjabaya si uu tanaasul dheeraad ah uga helo,” ayuu yiri.
“Laakiin Iran si fudud looma marin-habaabin karo.”
Axaddii, Trump wuxuu sheegay inuu ka laabtay qorshihii uu ku doonayay inuu xaaladda sii kiciyo, kaddib markii Iran iyo dalal kale oo Bariga Dhexe ah ay ka codsadeen inuu weerarka dib u dhigo.
Trump wuxuu sheegay in “qaab-dhismeedka heshiiska” la isku afgartay.
Hase yeeshee, ma jiraan calaamado muuqda oo muujinaya in wada-hadalladii Mareykanka iyo Iran dib loo billaabay.
Waxa keliya ee muuqda ayaa ah in Sacuudi Carabiya iyo Qatar ay walaac ka muujiyeen awoodda ay u leeyihiin inay si ku filan u difaacaan xarumahooda saliidda iyo gaaska, sida ay sheegeen laba diblomaasi oo gobolka ka tirsan.
Telefishinka rasmiga ah ee Sacuudi Carabiya ayaa Axaddii sheegay in Dhaxal-sugaha Mohammed bin Salman, oo ah hoggaamiyaha dhabta ah ee dalkaas, uu dhowaan Trump kala hadlay “baahida loo qabo in mudnaanta la siiyo wada-hadalka si xiisadda loo dejiyo” loogana “hortago dagaal ballaaran”.
Weerarradii dhowaan ka dhacay gobolka ayaa muujinaya sida walaacaasi u culus yahay.
Laba toddobaad ka hor, Xuutiyiinta Yemen, oo Iran la safan, ayaa xannibay maraakiibta Sacuudi Carabiya ee isticmaasha marin-biyoodka Baab al-Mandab ee Badda Cas.
Sacuudigu wuxuu saliidda dhuumo ugu gudbinayay deked ku taalla xeebtiisa galbeed ee Badda Cas, si uu uga wareego xakamaynta Iran ay ku hayso maraakiibta caalamka ee mara marin-biyoodka Hormuz, oo ah jidka ugu muhiimsan ee saliidda looga dhoofiyo Gacanka.
Toddobaadkii lasoo dhaafay, diyaarado aan duuliye lahayn ayaa weeraray laba xarumood oo waaweyn oo saliidda Sacuudi Carabiya ah. Riyadh waxay weerarka ku eedeysay maleeshiyaad Iran taageerto oo ku sugan Ciraaq.
Maalin kaddib, laba markab ayaa dab ku qabsaday dekedda Damiyaad ee Masar. Mas’uuliyiinta Masar waxay sheegeen in dhacdadu u muuqatay weerar ay fuliyeen diyaarado aan duuliye lahayn.
Falanqeeyayaal badan oo gobolka ah ayaa weerarka u arkay mid kale oo ay Iran ama kooxaha wakiillada u ah fuliyeen.
H.A. Hellyer, oo ah cilmi-baare sare oo ka tirsan Royal United Services Institute ee London, wuxuu sheegay in loollanka hadda socda uu salka ku hayo “dib-u-qaabeynta nidaamka amniga gobolka”.
Wuxuu sheegay in xudunta khilaafku tahay cidda maamuleysa marin-biyoodka Hormuz.
“Iran aad iyo aad ayay uga go’an tahay inaysan ka tanaasulin xakamaynta marin-biyoodka,” ayuu yiri. “Waxayna diyaar u tahay inay wax duqeyso si ay arrintaas u xaqiijiso.”
Waxaa taas dheer weerarkii lama filaanka ahaa ee 17-kii July lagu qaaday xarumo ciidan oo Mareykanku ku leeyahay Jordan, kaas oo lagu dilay saddex askari oo Mareykan ah.
“Weerarkii Jordan wuxuu ahaa dhacdadii wax walba beddeshay,” ayuu yiri Ali Vaez, agaasimaha mashruuca Iran ee kooxda International Crisis Group.
Wuxuu sheegay in weerarku uusan muujin oo keliya in Iran ay weli haysato keyd weyn oo gantaallo ah, balse uu sidoo kale caddeeyay in awoodda sirdoon ee Tehran ay ka sarreyso sidii hore loo rumeysnaa.
Weerarku wuxuu sidoo kale abuuray mucaaradad aan caadi ahayn gudaha Jordan, oo ah xulafo muhiim ah oo Mareykanku ku leeyahay dhinaca ammaanka.
Boqollaal qof oo caan ka ah dalkaas, oo ay ku jiraan siyaasiyiin iyo qareenno, ayaa ka hor yimid xaddidaadaha xorriyadda hadalka, waxayna dalbadeen in ciidamada Mareykanka laga saaro Jordan.
“Istaraatiijiyadda Iran muddadan oo dhan waxay ahayd inay Mareykanka fahamsiiso in haddii wareeg kale oo dagaal ahi dhaco, jawaabta Iran ay gobolka iyo dhaqaalaha caalamka ku yeelan doonto saameyn aad uga daran,” ayuu Vaez yiri.
Wuxuu intaas ku daray in Trump uusan weligiis si buuxda u fahmin waxa Iran dhaqaajiya iyo sida aysan u aqbalin in la cabsi geliyo ama xoog lagu maquuniyo.
Intii lagu jiray mudda xileedkiisa hadda iyo tiisii horeba, ayuu yiri, Trump “wuxuu ka gaabsaday inuu barto casharka” ah in cadaadiska iyo hanjabaadaha lagu hayo Iran ay keliya sii adkeeyaan mowqifkeeda.
“Waa siddeed sano oo uu waday cadaadiskiisa ugu sarreeya,” ayuu yiri, isaga oo ka hadlayay cunaqabateynta dhaqaale ee hadda lagu daray cadaadis militari.
“Waligeedna ma keenin wixii uu doonayay.”
Dhanka kale, Washington waxay la tacaaleysaa keyd hub oo sii yaraanaya.
Qaar ka mid ah saraakiisha militariga ayaa ka digaya in hub yaridu dhaawici karto awoodda Mareykanka ee dagaallada mustaqbalka, sida dagaal quwado waaweyn oo lala galo Shiinaha.
Saraakiishu waxay sheegayaan in dib-u-buuxinta hubka qaarkii ay qaadan karto sannado, gaar ahaan gantaallada difaaca sida Patriot-ka.
Farzan Sabet, oo ah falanqeeye arrimaha Iran ah kana tirsan Geneva Graduate Institute ee Switzerland, wuxuu sheegay in fursadaha militari ee Mareykanku aysan fiicneyn.
“Ma aha oo keliya hub yaraanta la soo sheegay,” ayuu yiri.
“Marka koowaad, ma cadda in weerar kooban oo waqti xaddidan leh, kaas oo Trump xilligan diyaar u yahay inuu qaado, uu ku filnaan karo inuu beddelo xisaabta Iran.”
“Marka labaad, way adag tahay in la rumaysto in fursadahaas militari ay si weyn u dhaawici karaan awoodda gantaallada iyo diyaaradaha aan duuliyaha lahayn ee Iran, ilaa heer aysan xiri karin marin-biyoodka Hormuz ama aysan waxyeello dheeraad ah u geysan karin kaabayaasha muhiimka ah iyo xarumaha tamarta ee Khaliijka.”
Iyagoo dareemaya kalsooni dheeraad ah, qaar ka mid ah mayalka adag ee Iran ayaa ku jeesjeesay xaaladda adag ee maamulka Trump uu galay.
Ebrahim Rezaei, afhayeenka guddiga amniga qaranka iyo siyaasadda arrimaha dibadda ee Baarlamaanka Iran, ayaa ka jawaabay hanjabaadihii cusub ee Trump.
Wuxuu tixraacay hadal uu Trump bishii April ku sheegay inuu Iran duqeyn doono ilaa uu “dib ugu celiyo xilligii dhagaxa”.
“Haddii Iran la weeraro,” ayuu Rezaei ku qoray X, “waxaan gobolka oo dhan iyo kaabayaashiisa dib ugu celin doonnaa xilligii dhagaxa.”
Markii Trump uu sheegay inuu dib u dhigay weerarka, falanqeeye caan ah oo mayal adag, Seyed Mohammad Marandi, ayaa bartiisa X kusoo bandhigay sawir TACOS digaag ah.
Sawirka wuxuu tixraacayay erey-gaaban oo ay dadka Trump dhaliila u adeegsadaan si jeesjees ah: TACO, oo ah “Trump Always Chickens Out” — Trump mar walba wuu baqaa oo ka laabtaa.
“Iran mowqifkeeda waxba kama beddelin,” ayuu ku qoray sawirka.
Halkii Mareykanka iyo Iran ay wada-hadallo isugu soo dhowaan lahaayeen, khubaro badan oo gobolka ah waxay aaminsan yihiin in labada dhinac ay hadda ka sii kala fog yihiin sidii hore.
Karimi, mas’uulkii hore ee Iran, wuxuu sheegay in Tehran ay tahay inay isu diyaariso weji kale oo dagaal toddobaadyada soo socda.
Wuxuu sheegay in inta labada dhinacba ay ku qanacsan yihiin in dalabaadkooda oo keliya la fuliyo, wada-hadalladu aysan noqon doonin kuwo macno leh.
“Si heshiis loo gaaro, labada dhinac waa inay siyaasad ahaan is-hoosaysiiyaan, isla markaana aqbalaan in himilooyinkooda xad-dhaafka ahi aysan shaqeyn doonin,” ayuu yiri.
Laakiin wuxuu intaas ku daray in, xilligan, “arrimahaas aysan miiska saarneyn”.
W/Q: Erika Solomon, oo ka tirsan New York Times