Mogadishu (Caasimada Online – The brazen rebellion of Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni has pushed the Federal Republic of Somalia to the edge of disintegration. His administration’s unconstitutional secession of powers and the piratical seizure of a national military shipment are not acts of political dissent — they are acts of insurrection.

In this existential crisis, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) cannot afford a timid response. To compel the Deni administration to return to the constitutional order — and to deter further fragmentation — the FGS must deploy a broader and more forceful strategy of coercion.

This analysis outlines a multi-pronged approach, expanding beyond blockades to include targeted sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and the full assertion of federal sovereignty over maritime. These are not merely punitive measures; they are the necessary tools of a legitimate government defending its very existence against a rogue state actor.

Targeted sanctions

This rebellion is not a grassroots uprising. It is a calculated power play led by Deni and a small circle of political and business elites who enable and benefit from his defiance. The response must therefore be surgical — aimed squarely at the architects of the crisis.

Asset freezes and travel bans: The FGS should immediately compile a list of individuals — including President Deni, key cabinet members, security officials, and complicit business leaders — for targeted sanctions.

Working with international partners such as the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations, the government should seek to freeze their overseas assets and impose strict travel bans. This would isolate Puntland’s leadership, sever access to global financial systems, and curtail their political mobility.

Economic blacklisting: In parallel, the FGS should collaborate with international financial bodies to blacklist Puntland-based companies and entities found to be complicit in unconstitutional activities, including those involved in arms trafficking and piracy. These measures would cut off the financial oxygen fueling Deni’s defiance.

Diplomatic and legal strangulation

Puntland’s leadership is acting like a de facto state, engaging directly with foreign governments such as Ethiopia. The FGS must use its internationally recognized sovereign status to dismantle this diplomatic illusion and reinforce Puntland’s legal isolation.

Leverage the UN Security Council: As a sitting member of the UN Security Council (2025–2026), Somalia is uniquely positioned to internationalize this crisis. The FGS should formally petition the Council to condemn Puntland’s actions as a threat to peace and security.

It can invoke UNSC Resolution 2713 — concerning Al-Shabaab — to push for stronger federal control over weapons and ammunition flows to Federal Member States. By presenting evidence that Puntland’s rebellion risks destabilizing the region and diverting arms, Mogadishu can push for a resolution, making all security assistance to FMSs conditional on direct oversight by the FGS.

Criminal prosecution: The legal response must also escalate. The arrest warrant issued against Jubaland’s president sets a clear precedent. Somalia’s Attorney General should now pursue charges of treason, sedition, and piracy against President Deni and his inner circle, filing them in the Banaadir Regional Court.

Even if enforcement is not immediately feasible, these charges would formally criminalize the rebellion, delegitimize the Puntland leadership on the international stage, and establish a legal basis for future accountability.

Asserting full sovereign control

Deni’s rebellion is rooted in the assumption that Puntland can operate as an independent state — controlling its own territory, ports, and infrastructure. That assumption must be decisively challenged.

Maritime blockade: Under Somali law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the FGS holds sole sovereignty over the country’s territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The FGS should declare a maritime control zone off Puntland’s coast, requiring all commercial vessels to submit to Somali Navy inspection.

Any vessel attempting to dock at Bosaso or other Puntland ports without federal clearance should be interdicted. This would not only halt the illegal flow of arms but also disrupt the commercial trade that sustains Puntland’s economy.

Additionally, the FGS should declare all fishing and resource licenses issued by the Puntland administration null and void, warning foreign operators that any such contracts will be subject to legal action.

Conclusion: The price of unity

The path of coercion is difficult. But the path of inaction leads to inevitable collapse. President Deni’s rebellion is a direct challenge to the Somali state — and must be met with the full weight of the state’s legal and sovereign power.

A comprehensive strategy that combines targeted sanctions with a resolute reassertion of federal authority is not just necessary — it is the only viable path forward. Somalia cannot afford hesitation. To falter now is to invite deeper fragmentation and empower those who seek a return to warlordism and lawlessness.

The price of unity is decisive action. The Federal Government must be ready to pay it.

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