Ankara (Caasimada Online) – Following a night fraught with tension and surprises, Turkey is steeling itself for an unprecedented runoff election.

Despite President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strong showing, he fell just short of the decisive victory required to secure his position for another term.

President Erdogan, an indefatigable political titan who has held power since 2003 and remained unscathed in many national polls, barely missed the 50-percent benchmark needed for outright victory.

As per nearly complete results of the most significant election in Turkey’s post-Ottoman history, Erdogan garnered 49.3 percent of the votes, according to the Anadolu state news agency.

“I wholeheartedly believe that we will continue to serve our people in the coming five years,” proclaimed Erdogan, who, at 69, exuded triumph before a vast assembly of supporters past midnight.

He further claimed that his Islamic ruling party and its ultranationalist allies had seized a clear majority in parliament.

A disappointing outcome for the opposition

Despite the late pre-election polls that projected a lead for Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition leader lagged behind Erdogan with 45.0 percent of the vote.

Kilicdaroglu’s camp initially disputed the vote count, alleging they were in the lead. However, the 74-year-old admitted to reporters early Monday that a runoff seemed inevitable.

“If our nation says second round, we will absolutely win in the second round,” Kilicdaroglu asserted, adding, “The will for change in the society is higher than 50 percent.” This statement hints at a strong desire for change within the Turkish populace.

The news of a possible continuation of Erdogan’s unconventional economics has led to the lira’s depreciation against the dollar and euro, signaling investor disappointment.

The geopolitical importance of this election, given Turkey’s significant role in conflicts from Syria to Ukraine, extends beyond its borders.

As a NATO member with a foot in both Europe and the Middle East, Turkey’s election results are as crucial for Washington and Brussels as they are for Damascus and Moscow.

The Erdogan era: Progress and controversy

Erdogan’s tenure, which has seen Turkey evolve into a military and geopolitical powerhouse, has witnessed a development boom, particularly in conservative regions.

Erdogan has also earned the gratitude of more religious voters for lifting secular-era restrictions on headscarves and fostering more Islamic schools.

However, his rule has not been without controversy. The second decade of Erdogan’s leadership was marked by political and social upheaval, with sweeping purges following a failed coup attempt in 2016, causing discomfort among Western allies.

The emergence of Kilicdaroglu and his six-party opposition alliance offers a clear alternative to Erdogan.

A second-round election might provide Erdogan with a chance to regroup. However, he cannot evade Turkey’s gravest economic crisis since the ’90s or the lingering trauma from a poorly handled earthquake in February that claimed over 50,000 lives.

Pre-election polls suggested that Kilicdaroglu would secure the youth vote, constituting nearly 10 percent of the electorate, by a significant margin.

Meanwhile, some remain staunch in their faith in Erdogan, questioning how a coalition of six parties could effectively govern.

The road ahead

As the dust settles and Turkey prepares for its first-ever presidential runoff on May 28, all eyes are now on Sinan Ogan, a lesser-known independent candidate who has unexpectedly emerged as a potential kingmaker with five percent of the vote.

The direction Turkey takes in this critical junction will influence not only its domestic future but also the region’s geopolitical landscape.

Erdogan’s campaign strategy, increasingly targeted towards his core supporters, has been to vilify the opposition as a “pro-LGBT” lobby subservient to outlawed Kurdish militants funded by the West.

He has also been courting state sector workers with substantial pay raises leading up to the vote.

In the heart of Istanbul, voter Recep Turktan expressed his wish for unity after casting his ballot, “The most important thing is that we do not divide Turkey,” the 67-year-old said. “We will carry out our duty. I say, go on with Erdogan.”

But not everyone echoes this sentiment. University student Kivanc Dal voiced his frustration, “Erdogan can build as many tanks and weapons as he wants, but I have no respect for that as long as there is no penny in my pocket.”

Nursery schoolteacher Deniz Aydemir, meanwhile, expressed skepticism about the opposition’s ability to govern, “Yes, there are high prices… but at least there is prosperity,” the 46-year-old said.

A pivotal moment in Turkey’s democracy

This election signifies a pivotal moment for Turkey’s democracy. Kilicdaroglu encapsulated the sentiment of many when he said, “We all miss democracy,” after casting his vote in Ankara.

He represents a broad-based coalition reminiscent of the alliances Erdogan himself was adept at forming throughout his political career.

As the nation prepares for the runoff, Ogan, expelled from an ultranationalist party that has since joined forces with Erdogan, remains noncommittal about his support.

“We will not say if we will support this or that candidate,” Ogan said Sunday. “We will hold consultations with their representatives and then decide.”

This historic runoff election, a first in Turkey’s 100-year history as a primarily Muslim but officially secular state, underlines the shifting political landscape.

The result could substantially change Turkey’s domestic policy and its relations with allies and neighbors. The world will be watching closely as Turkey decides its future.