MOGADISHU, Somalia – Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud departed for Cairo on Sunday for talks with his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a visit that signals a deepening alignment between the two nations amid soaring regional tensions with their powerful neighbor, Ethiopia.
The official agenda focuses on bilateral cooperation and security. However, the meeting is set against the volatile backdrop of two major flashpoints: Ethiopia’s recent announcement regarding its controversial Nile dam and, more critically, a contentious port deal with Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland, which Mogadishu views as a violation of its sovereignty.
President Mohamud’s trip to Cairo highlights the delicate diplomatic balancing act he must navigate. While accepting Sisi’s invitation, he is pointedly sidestepping a competing invitation from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to attend the inauguration of the newly completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
The visit solidifies a strategic convergence between Somalia and Egypt, both of whom find themselves increasingly at odds with Ethiopia’s assertive foreign policy.
The port deal catalyst
While Egypt’s dispute with Ethiopia over the GERD is long-standing, the immediate catalyst for the strengthening of the Somalia-Egypt axis is a memorandum of understanding signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland in early 2024.
The deal would grant landlocked Ethiopia access to the Red Sea via a leased military base and commercial port in exchange for Ethiopia potentially recognizing Somaliland’s independence.
Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its sovereign territory, reacted with fury, declaring the deal “null and void” and recalling its ambassador from Addis Ababa. The move by Ethiopia shattered a fragile détente in the Horn of Africa, sending Mogadishu searching for powerful allies.
Egypt, a long-standing rival of Ethiopia, swiftly and unequivocally backed Somalia’s position. This has created a new diplomatic front, with Cairo leveraging the port dispute to apply further pressure on Addis Ababa.
Somalia and Ethiopia eventually signed a landmark agreement in the Turkish capital on December 2024, pledging to de-escalate a severe diplomatic crisis that had pushed the Horn of Africa to the brink of conflict for nearly a year.
The “Ankara Declaration,” facilitated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, commits both nations to respecting each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The deal aims to resolve tensions that erupted after Ethiopia signed a controversial sea access deal with Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland in January 2024
The Nile Dam flashpoint
The diplomatic maneuvering comes as Ethiopia announces the completion of the GERD, a multi-billion-dollar hydroelectric project on the Blue Nile that Addis Ababa deems essential for its economic development.
However, for Egypt, which relies on the Nile for over 97% of its freshwater, the dam is an “existential threat.” Cairo fears Ethiopia’s unilateral control over the dam’s filling and operation will dangerously curtail its water supply, which is already below the scarcity threshold for its population of over 100 million.
Years of negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have failed to produce a legally binding agreement, and Cairo recently declared the talks have reached a “dead end.” Ethiopia’s invitation to the dam’s inauguration is seen by observers as a move to legitimize its unilateral actions, making President Mohamud’s attendance politically impossible if he wishes to maintain close ties with Egypt.
During the talks in Cairo, officials are expected to discuss security cooperation and other related matters. Egypt has significantly increased its support for the Somali National Army, providing training and equipment as Mogadishu battles the al-Shabaab insurgency. This support is viewed by many as a direct counter to Ethiopia’s long-standing security influence in Somalia.
The Somali source text indicated that Egypt is seeking to revive past agreements to “isolate Ethiopia.“ This likely refers to Cairo’s ambition to forge a new strategic bloc with Somalia and potentially Eritrea, whose own relationship with Ethiopia has soured dramatically since their joint campaign in the Tigray war.
President Mohamud’s visit to Cairo is a clear signal of his administration’s foreign policy orientation. Caught between two regional giants, he has chosen to align with Egypt, a move that could reshape alliances across the Horn of Africa and has profound implications for the future stability of the volatile region.