ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia – Somaliland’s president is set to travel to Ethiopia to revive a contentious sea-for-recognition deal, officials said, a high-stakes move that threatens to scuttle recent diplomatic efforts and reignite a crisis with Somalia over its sovereign territory.
The planned visit by President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Irro” to meet Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signals a return to a pact that would grant landlocked Ethiopia a naval base on the Red Sea. The initiative follows the collapse of Turkish-led mediation between Ethiopia and Somalia, steering the Horn of Africa back into volatile diplomatic waters.
This renewed push by the Somaliland leader effectively sidelines Somalia and places intense pressure on regional stability, pitting Ethiopia’s strategic quest for a coastline against Somalia’s vehement defense of its territorial integrity.
Somaliland’s Minister of the Presidency, Khadar Hussein Abdi, confirmed that a review of the original January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) would be the centerpiece of the talks in Addis Ababa.
The original MoU, signed on January 1, 2024, was a political bombshell. It proposed a 50-year lease for Ethiopia to establish a naval base and commercial port access on a 20-kilometer (12-mile) stretch of Somaliland’s coast, likely near the strategic port of Berbera.
In return, Ethiopia would offer Somaliland, a territory that declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but remains unrecognized, a stake in Ethiopian Airlines, and, critically, was expected to become the first nation to recognize its statehood formally. For President Irro, who won the election in late 2024, securing the deal would represent a monumental achievement in foreign policy for his new administration.
Somalia, however, reacted with fury, branding the agreement as an “act of aggression” and a violation of international law. The federal government in Mogadishu has since waged a relentless diplomatic campaign to have the deal annulled.
The direct talks between Hargeisa and Addis Ababa mark a definitive failure of the “Ankara Process.” Last December, Turkey, which maintains strong ties with Somalia, brokered an agreement between the leaders of Ethiopia and Somalia to de-escalate the crisis.
That framework called for technical negotiations to address Ethiopia’s economic need for sea access through conventional means that would respect Somalia’s sovereignty. However, those talks disintegrated by April, according to officials briefed on the matter.
“The process failed because Ethiopia refused to abandon its demand for a sovereign lease of territory for a military base,” said a diplomatic source who requested anonymity. “Somalia’s offer of standard port access was rejected, and there has been no formal contact since.”
The standoff has amplified geopolitical rivalries in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, a nation of 120 million, views sea access as a vital national interest to fuel its economic growth and project power.
Somalia’s fierce opposition has been bolstered by Egypt, which sees Ethiopia’s regional ambitions as a threat. Cairo’s rivalry with Addis Ababa is dominated by a long-standing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, but it also extends to the Red Sea, a critical waterway for Egypt’s Suez Canal. The Cairo-Mogadishu alliance has formed a clear bloc to counter Ethiopian influence.
As President Irro prepares for his trip, his administration’s decision to pursue the bilateral deal with Ethiopia effectively bypasses Mogadishu entirely. The move risks not only a diplomatic firestorm but also further destabilizing a region already fraught with complex security challenges.