Mogadishu (Caasimada Online) – The Somali government has forcefully denied persistent rumors that the United States is engaged in secret negotiations with the al-Qaeda-allied Al-Shabaab militant group, calling the speculation “baseless” amid a growing debate over the future of the long-running conflict.
A top Somali diplomat insisted that Washington’s policy remains firm in treating Al-Shabaab as a terrorist organization, pushing back against recent commentary from a former US official that has fueled talk of a potential, dramatic shift in American strategy in the Horn of Africa.
The official denial comes as Somalia’s government, with significant US military support, continues its protracted war against the insurgency that has destabilized the country for nearly two decades.
“These reports have no basis in reality,” said Ali Mohamed Omar, Somalia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs. In an interview with the London-based newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed while on a visit to Doha, Qatar, Omar stressed that “the United States still maintains its previous position that Al-Shabaab is a terrorist organization that poses a threat to the region.”
The rumors of a potential policy pivot were sparked by recent comments from Hamse Warfa, who served as a senior advisor on civilian security and human rights at the US Department of State during the Biden administration.
In a widely circulated analysis, Warfa argued that a purely military-focused strategy against Al-Shabaab had reached its limits and that a political solution may be the only viable path forward.
“There are signs that talks could begin now,” Warfa was quoted as saying, suggesting that back-channel discussions could be underway. He framed the idea of engagement, particularly under a potential future Trump administration, as a “political earthquake” that would upend nearly 20 years of American counter-terrorism policy in the region.
A ‘seismic shift’ in policy
Any direct engagement between Washington and Al-Shabaab would represent a seismic shift. The United States officially designated Al-Shabaab as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in 2008.
Successive US administrations have relied on a combination of drone strikes, special forces operations, and funding for the Somali National Army and African Union peacekeepers to combat the group. The U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) maintains a consistent presence in Somalia to advise local forces and conduct airstrikes in support of “collective self-defense” against militants.
The speculation about talks touches a nerve for the Somali government, which would view any negotiations that sideline it as a profound betrayal and a threat to its sovereignty.
While President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has previously stated his government could one day negotiate with Al-Shabaab, he has insisted on strict preconditions, including that the group must first renounce its extremist ideology and its affiliation with al-Qaeda—steps the group’s hardline leadership has consistently rejected.
The debate spurred by Warfa’s comments has raised fundamental questions about the future of one of the world’s most enduring conflicts. Proponents of dialogue argue that the military campaign has resulted in a costly stalemate, while opponents warn that negotiating with Al-Shabaab would legitimize a brutal insurgency responsible for tens of thousands of deaths.
It remains highly uncertain whether Al-Shabaab’s core leadership would even entertain credible negotiations or what concessions they might demand beyond their long-standing call for the complete withdrawal of all foreign forces from Somalia.
For now, Somalia’s public denial aims to quell a narrative that could undermine its partnership with Washington and embolden the insurgents. However, with the war against Al-Shabaab showing no clear end, the debate in policy circles over the merits of dialogue versus military force is likely to continue.