MOGADISHU, Somalia – Long-simmering tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia are threatening to boil over in Somalia’s strategic Gedo region, where Ethiopian military officers are reportedly backing regional forces against the federal government in a move that could shatter a recent diplomatic calm.
Multiple sources in the border area confirmed to local media that Ethiopia has dispatched a senior military general to Gedo. The general has reportedly issued a stern warning to forces aligned with Somalia’s federal government, demanding they withdraw from the key border town of Beled-Hawo.
The Ethiopian commander met with officials from Somalia’s Jubaland state and local clan elders, telling them that federal-aligned troops led by security operative Abdirashid Janan must leave the area. When pressed for a reason, the general stated that Addis Ababa has a long-standing security collaboration with Jubaland’s regional forces.
The situation represents a significant flashpoint, inflaming relations between the central government in Mogadishu and its neighbor, Ethiopia, which is also a major troop contributor to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).
Diplomatic thaw in jeopardy
The flare-up comes after months of high-stakes tension following the January 1, 2024, signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between landlocked Ethiopia and Somaliland.
The deal would grant Ethiopia naval and commercial access to the Red Sea via the port of Berbera in exchange for a stake in Ethiopian Airlines and, crucially, potential recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty—a move Mogadishu furiously decried as an “act of aggression” and a violation of its territorial integrity.
Somaliland has operated as a de facto independent state since declaring its separation from Somalia in 1991. However, it has not been officially recognized by any country.
While diplomatic ties were partially restored after the initial fallout, the events in Gedo suggest the underlying conflict is far from resolved. According to analysts, if Ethiopian troops actively help Jubaland forces expel federal troops from Beled-Hawo, it could irrevocably damage the relationship.
In a statement on Wednesday, Somalia’s federal government accused Jubaland officials, led by regional Vice President Mohamud Sayid Aden, and “Ethiopian leaders” of a coordinated plan to “inflame animosity” in Gedo.
Notably, Mogadishu’s statement avoided directly naming the Ethiopian military officers on the ground, a sign of its delicate diplomatic position.
Deep-rooted rivalries
The Gedo standoff is also deeply intertwined with Somalia’s volatile internal politics. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government is pushing for contentious constitutional amendments, a move staunchly opposed by several of Somalia’s powerful Federal Member States.
Jubaland’s leader, Ahmed Madobe, along with the leader of Puntland state, Said Abdullahi Deni, has accused President Mohamud of undermining the country’s federal structure and reneging on pledges to uphold the rule of law. This internal power struggle provides fertile ground for external actors like Ethiopia to exert influence by backing regional governments against the central authority.
The federal-aligned forces in Gedo, led by Janan, have reportedly been using a military base built by the United Kingdom to launch operations against Jubaland troops, further antagonizing both the regional administration and its Ethiopian partners.
Adding another layer of geopolitical complexity are unverified reports of a potential deployment of Egyptian forces to Somalia. Such a move would be viewed with extreme concern in Addis Ababa, given the long-standing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile.
The combination of a bitter internal political feud, unresolved diplomatic crises, and the strategic ambitions of regional powers has turned Gedo into a dangerous tinderbox, with the potential to ignite a much wider conflict.