DJIBOUTI CITY – Djibouti is moving to revive stalled talks between Somalia’s federal government and the breakaway region of Somaliland, diplomatic sources told Caasimada Online, in a fresh attempt to ease tensions in the Horn of Africa after a contentious port deal with Ethiopia derailed earlier efforts.
The initiative is being led by Djibouti’s long-time president, Ismail Omar Guelleh. It comes on the heels of Somaliland’s recent leadership change and seeks to rebuild trust badly shaken by a maritime agreement that Mogadishu denounced as an “act of aggression.”
Relations between Djibouti and Somaliland have warmed since Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known as “Irro,” won Somaliland’s presidential election in November 2024. His administration has signaled readiness to reopen dialogue with Mogadishu, breaking from the combative approach of his predecessor.
Guelleh has welcomed the opening but is pushing for a structured process with “clear guidelines for resuming talks and firm red lines that the secessionist administration should not cross,” according to regional sources.
Shadow of the Ethiopia deal
Djibouti’s push follows the collapse of a previous attempt at dialogue. In December 2023, Djibouti hosted Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Somaliland’s then-leader Muse Bihi Abdi, who agreed to work toward closer cooperation.
But less than two days later, Bihi signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The deal gave landlocked Ethiopia a 50-year lease on 20 kilometers (12 miles) of Somaliland’s coastline for a naval base and commercial port. In exchange, Ethiopia offered shares in Ethiopian Airlines and, crucially, the prospect of diplomatic recognition of Somaliland.
For Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991 but lacks international recognition, the agreement was hailed as a historic breakthrough. Mogadishu, however, saw it as a grave violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The MoU also alarmed Djibouti. Its port handles more than 95 percent of Ethiopia’s trade, and the emergence of a rival, Ethiopian-controlled port next door was viewed as a direct economic and security threat. In response, Djibouti renewed its Defence Cooperation Treaty with France to shore up its defenses.
Djibouti’s deep Influence
Djibouti’s mediation efforts carry weight thanks to its political clout within Somalia’s clan-based system. President Guelleh, from the Issa sub-clan of the Dir, is seen as a key power broker over the “Dir block” in Somalia’s federal parliament.
This bloc, born out of the Djibouti-hosted Somali Reconciliation Conference in 2000, often gives northern sub-clans — including those dominant in Somaliland and Djibouti — leverage over their southern rivals. Its support was pivotal in the 2022 election that returned President Mohamud to power.
Somaliland’s new president, Irro, is said to be open to the talks, though “he is cautious not to dwell on his predecessor’s political missteps that derailed the previous dialogue,” one diplomat familiar with the process told Caasimada Online.
Yet any breakthrough faces headwinds from Somalia’s own federal dynamics. States such as Puntland and Jubaland remain deeply skeptical.
Puntland, which has long sparred with Mogadishu, severed ties with the federal government in 2023 over constitutional disputes and Somaliland’s absence from national decision-making. “For Puntland, the maritime MoU proves its argument that Somaliland cannot enjoy federal representation while rejecting Somalia’s sovereignty,” said a researcher in Garowe, the regional capital.
These internal rifts underscore the difficulty of building consensus on Somaliland’s future. Djibouti, meanwhile, continues to reinforce its role on the ground.
Its peacekeepers, deployed in Somalia under the African Union Transition Mission (ATMIS) as “Hiil Walaal,” recently expanded cooperation with Mogadishu under a new security agreement, tightening its grip as both mediator and security partner in a volatile period.