HARGEISA, Somaliland – Former Somaliland president Muse Bihi Abdi has, for the first time, acknowledged that Somalia’s diplomatic offensive forced the collapse of a landmark sea access deal with Ethiopia.

In his first major interview since leaving office, Bihi admitted Mogadishu had “defeated” both his administration and Addis Ababa on the world stage, leaving Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed with little choice but to abandon the agreement. The deal would have granted Ethiopia long-sought naval access to the Red Sea in return for recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty.

“On our side, we were ready, but Ethiopia could not proceed,” Bihi said, attributing the breakdown to overwhelming external pressure on Abiy.

The rare admission offers a candid post-mortem on the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on January 1, 2024—a deal that rattled the Horn of Africa and was swiftly condemned by Somalia, which insists Somaliland remains part of its territory.

Bihi described how Somalia marshaled regional and global institutions to isolate Ethiopia, making the agreement politically impossible to sustain.

“The issue was taken up by the African Union, the Arab League, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation—all sided with Somalia,” he said. He even revealed that Ethiopia faced a stark warning: the AU might relocate its headquarters from Addis Ababa, a threat that would have severely undercut Ethiopia’s diplomatic standing.

According to Bihi, Egypt spearheaded efforts within the Arab League, while the OIC unanimously declared Ethiopia at fault. “The Arab world, led by Egypt, applied immense pressure,” he said. “Even the Organization of Islamic Cooperation agreed Ethiopia was in the wrong, and that is what forced the agreement to be abandoned.”

This united push, Bihi confessed, blindsided both him and Abiy. “Neither I nor Abiy Ahmed expected it to unfold this way; it was never part of the plan,” he admitted.

A deal that shook the Horn

The shelved MoU envisioned leasing a 20-kilometer (12-mile) stretch of Somaliland’s coastline to Ethiopia for 50 years, enabling Addis Ababa to build a naval base and commercial port. In exchange, Ethiopia hinted that it would become the first nation to recognize Somaliland as an independent state formally.

Somaliland, a former British protectorate, broke away from Somalia in 1991 after a bloody civil war. It has since functioned as a self-governing democracy with its own currency and security forces, but has yet to gain international recognition. For Hargeisa, the deal seemed like a breakthrough in its decades-long quest for legitimacy.

Mogadishu, however, immediately denounced the pact as an “act of aggression” and a violation of Somali sovereignty, vowing to fight it on every front. The crisis quickly escalated, with Somalia recalling its ambassador from Addis Ababa and rallying support abroad. (For more on the initial fallout, see the International Crisis Group’s analysis.)

The collapse of the deal marks a clear diplomatic win for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose government leveraged alliances and international law to defend Somalia’s territorial integrity. It also underscores the region’s delicate balance, where competing ambitions can trigger broad geopolitical ripples.

Ethiopia’s search for sea access remains a defining priority for Abiy. Ever since Eritrea’s independence in 1993 left the country landlocked, Addis Ababa has relied almost exclusively on Djibouti’s ports—a dependency Abiy has described as a “geographical prison.”