MOGADISHU, Somalia — When Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud traveled to Kismayo, Jubaland on Sunday, many viewed it as a high-risk move that could strengthen his regional rival, Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe.”

The talks ended without any visible progress, and by Monday morning, the president had returned to Mogadishu.

However, sources now suggest that the trip may have been part of a larger plan — a test of Madobe’s willingness to cooperate and a step that quietly set the stage for more decisive federal action.

“The Kismayo visit was not a retreat but a test — a way to expose the limits of regional defiance under the guise of dialogue,” said one senior official who attended the closed-door meetings.

By giving dialogue a genuine chance, President Hassan Sheikh demonstrated the federal government’s readiness to pursue peace before resorting to tougher measures.

That sequence — talk first, act later — gives Mogadishu both moral and political legitimacy for its next move. It also undercuts any claim that the government was rushing toward confrontation.

From diplomacy to implementation

According to insiders, Monday’s back-to-back meetings at Villa Somalia marked a clear shift in approach.

The president told his ministers that “the Jubaland issue now rests fully with the federal government,” effectively signaling the end of open-ended negotiations and the start of action.

The new direction, informally referred to as Plan B, centers on Garbaharey — a town long disputed between Kismayo and Mogadishu, but now under firm federal control.

While no official announcement has been made, officials confirmed that discussions were held throughout Monday afternoon and late into the night, led by Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre and lawmakers from the Gedo region.

“By visiting Kismayo first, President Hassan Sheikh made clear that reconciliation was possible — and that rejection would have consequences,” said Ahmed Abdi, a political observer in Mogadishu.

In this light, the trip to Kismayo wasn’t a failure but a transitional moment — diplomacy first, enforcement second. The breakdown of talks provided clear justification for what insiders describe as a necessary federal correction, not a reactionary move.

The symbolism of the president’s visit shouldn’t be underestimated. Kismayo has long been viewed as a semi-autonomous stronghold, often operating beyond Mogadishu’s influence.

Hassan Sheikh’s decision to land there, meet with Madobe, and then walk away unscathed sent a strong message: no part of Somalia is off-limits to the president.

“Just by setting foot in Kismayo, Hassan Sheikh reminded everyone that federal authority extends across Somalia’s map — even where it’s contested,” said an analyst specializing in Somali federalism.

Rather than legitimizing Madobe’s position, the visit reaffirmed national authority in a region that has repeatedly tested it. It showed that the president could engage on hostile ground without conceding anything — an important image for a leader navigating Somalia’s fragile balance of power.

Part of a larger federal vision

Officials and analysts see the Kismayo trip as part of a wider effort to reset relations between the federal government and Somalia’s regional states.

Instead of being a one-off event, it fits into the president’s broader roadmap for political reform, decentralization, and constitutional review.

The message from Villa Somalia, according to those involved, is straightforward: dialogue remains possible — but only within the bounds of the constitution.

As one cabinet member put it, “This isn’t about punishing Jubaland; it’s about protecting the integrity of the federal system.”

If implemented, Plan B could mark a turning point — reasserting federal oversight while maintaining a tone of reconciliation.

It would also set a precedent for how future disputes with other regions might be handled: patient diplomacy first, followed by firm action.

As of late Monday night, there has still been no official statement from the government. But insiders say preparations are already underway for what they describe as a “transitional arrangement” in Garbaharey.

What began as a Sunday visit aimed at reconciliation now appears to be a strategic maneuver that has strengthened Mogadishu’s position.

By choosing patience before power, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud appears to have turned a moment of apparent weakness into one of quiet control — and possibly reshaped the balance of authority in southern Somalia.