Mogadishu, Somalia — The unfolding tragedy in Sudan is a chilling warning for Somalia. What began as political manipulation and covert interference has erupted into a full-blown war. It has devastated one of Africa’s most resource-rich nations.
If Somalia does not act decisively, it may be next in line to suffer the same fate — fragmentation, proxy warfare, and national collapse orchestrated by foreign interests, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The Sudan Parallel
Sudan’s current nightmare is not a coincidence. It is the result of calculated foreign meddling. Outside powers exploited internal divisions, armed rival factions, and turned national institutions into instruments of chaos.
The UAE, pursuing its strategic and economic ambitions in the Red Sea region, has been accused of fuelling the conflict by supporting both sides.
It has backed the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces at different times to keep Sudan in perpetual instability. This allows it to secure control over lucrative gold, port, and land assets while weakening Sudan’s sovereignty.
Meanwhile, similar patterns are emerging in Somalia. The Puntland region has quietly become a hub for arms smuggling and mercenary transfers linked to Sudan’s conflict.
Reports of covert UAE operations and arms shipments, including those detailed in investigations into Bosaso-based flights, point to a dangerous trend. It could drag Somalia into regional proxy wars and internal fragmentation.
The irony of Somalia’s role
The irony is sharp. Many of Somalia’s political and security leaders were educated in Sudan, taking advantage of its once generous scholarships and welcoming academic environment.
Yet instead of showing solidarity and practising responsible diplomacy, Somalia now risks becoming a platform for the same destabilisation that is destroying Sudan. Instead of fostering peace and shared prosperity, Somalia is being used as a tool to serve foreign interests that benefit from African division.
This is not simply a matter of misplaced foreign policy. It is moral decay at the heart of leadership. Allowing Somali soil to be used for arms transit and mercenary recruitment not only violates national sovereignty but also undermines regional peace.
It signals to the world that Somalia has learnt nothing from its own civil war. As a result, the country remains vulnerable to exploitation by those who see it as a pawn in larger geopolitical games.
UAE’s real agenda
The UAE’s goals in the Horn of Africa are not about friendship or development. They focus on resources and control — ports, minerals, fisheries, and strategic routes linking Africa to the Arabian Peninsula.
By deeply involving itself in Somalia’s political economy through investments with strings attached, the UAE aims to exert influence over key ports such as Bosaso and Berbera. It also seeks indirect control over Somali decision-making.
This influence is exercised not through diplomacy, but through divide-and-rule tactics.
It finances local leaders, trains security units outside government oversight, and cultivates loyalty among regional actors. These are the same methods used in Yemen, Libya, and Sudan — all countries now mired in chaos, disunity, and dependence.
The cost of inaction
If Somalia’s federal government does not act swiftly to curtail foreign interference, particularly from the UAE, it risks a catastrophic unravelling of state authority.
The growing autonomy of regional administrations like Puntland — bolstered by external support — is already eroding the unity of the Somali Republic.
A future in which Somalia mirrors Sudan’s fate is not far-fetched. It would mean competing armed groups, a paralysed government, and a humanitarian disaster beyond repair.
Somalia’s constitution and sovereignty must not be for sale. The time has come for the Somali leadership to draw a firm line — to reassert control over ports, airspace, and security policy. It must also audit all foreign military or economic engagements.
In the same way, neutrality and transparency must guide foreign relations, not personal enrichment or factional loyalty.
A call for strategic independence
Somalia must assert its independence in foreign policy. The country’s survival relies on leaders who look beyond immediate benefits and understand the risks of proxy involvement. Therefore, the government should:
1- Investigate and regulate all foreign military and intelligence activities on Somali soil.
2- Reinforce national control over arms imports and security cooperation agreements.
3- Coordinate regionally with neutral actors such as Kenya, Djibouti, and Tanzania to prevent arms flows and mercenary movements.
4- Maintain balanced diplomacy with Gulf states — including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — without falling under any bloc’s influence.
5- Empower national institutions to resist the infiltration of money politics that compromise Somalia’s sovereignty.
Conclusion
Somalia stands at a dangerous crossroads. The same shadowy forces that turned Sudan into a battlefield are already testing the waters in Puntland and beyond.
History is offering a lesson. Either Somalia takes decisive action to protect its sovereignty, or it will wake up one day to find itself a victim of the same fate it once pitied in others.
The choice is ours. But time is running out.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Somalia Today.