Nairobi, Kenya – Israel’s decision to recognise Somaliland as an independent state has jolted the Horn of Africa, forcing regional powerhouses Kenya and Ethiopia into a delicate diplomatic reset.
The December 26 move prompted a sharp warning from the African Union (AU), which fears it could increase tensions and erode Africa’s core norm: territorial integrity.
Somalia condemned the recognition as “illegal” and an affront to its sovereignty, vowing to pursue all diplomatic avenues to reverse it.
The AU quickly rejected the decision, arguing it might set a precedent that fuels separatist claims elsewhere and complicates dispute management in fragile borderlands.
Somaliland, a self-governing region in northern Somalia, declared independence in 1991 after the collapse of the central state.
While it has built functioning institutions, a currency and security forces over three decades, it has failed to secure broad international recognition.
Supporters argue Israel’s move breaks a long diplomatic blockade. Meanwhile, Mogadishu and its allies counter that unilateral recognition undermines regional stability. They say it also challenges the principle that borders should not be redrawn by external actors.
‘Red lines’
The split holds immediate political weight in Somalia, where Somaliland’s status is intertwined with national identity and deep distrust of foreign interference.
In Hargeisa, the recognition is framed as long-sought validation of the region’s relative stability.
But the AU has sought to limit fallout by reinforcing institutional red lines.
Officials have described the recognition as inconsistent with the bloc’s founding principles, urging member states to avoid steps that could intensify fragmentation.
For the AU, however, the issue is as much about precedent as it is about Somalia.
African diplomats have long feared that formal recognition of breakaway territories could multiply disputes and weaken fragile governments facing insurgencies.
The concern is also strategic: a norm discouraging secession helps the bloc manage crises without encouraging a race for international sponsorship of new states.
The caution resonates across East Africa, where political elites remain sensitive to internal fault lines.
Adding to this complexity, the Horn’s security landscape presents significant challenges.
The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are crucial commercial and military corridors amid ongoing instability in Somalia and Sudan.
Diplomats worry a recognition battle could merge with wider rivalries over ports, naval access and the alignment of smaller states.
Kenya and Ethiopia have tried to prevent the rift from escalating into broader regional discord.
Both countries hold high-stakes interests in the Horn’s security architecture, including counterterrorism and refugee management.
Ethiopia’s tightrope
Ethiopia, a landlocked heavyweight dependent on stable maritime access, sits at the centre of the region’s port politics.
The issue deepened in January 2024 when Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland proposing port access in exchange for possible recognition—a move that triggered a strong backlash from Somalia.
Israel’s recognition adds a new variable to this balancing act.
Ethiopia has refrained from issuing a clear public decision, a restraint shaped by careful calculation.
Addis Ababa must account for its regional partnerships while remaining wary of any move interpreted as endorsing border changes—a step that would clash with the AU stance.
Analysts say Ethiopia’s national security establishment views trade corridors as vital for supply reliability and military movement, ensuring maritime access remains on the agenda.
Kenya’s balance
Kenya, however, faces a different calculus.
Nairobi has historically aligned with the AU’s emphasis on sovereignty, yet has maintained practical ties with Somaliland, including a representative office in Nairobi.
Israel’s recognition narrows the space for this “stability-first” engagement.
Any gesture appearing to legitimise Somaliland could sharpen Somali objections and strain security cooperation, while a harder posture could disrupt trade and political contacts in the northern Somali corridor.
As a regional hub with a deep Somali diaspora, Nairobi must weigh the economic implications of a confrontational approach.
The broader risk, diplomats say, is that the row becomes a proxy battlefield for wider contests over Red Sea security.
For Kenya and Ethiopia, the coming weeks will determine if regional diplomacy can prevent escalation—or if fragile cooperation will give way to confrontation.
For the AU, this episode is a test of its resolve: can it uphold its founding principles and maintain regional unity at a key moment? The answer will echo beyond the Horn, shaping Africa’s diplomatic future.