ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia – Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has declared it is “only a matter of time” before his country regains access to the Red Sea port of Assab, framing the potential move as the correction of a historic error and dramatically escalating tensions with neighboring Eritrea.

Eritrea swiftly condemned the remarks, labeling them “reckless saber-rattling” and a “disdainful distortion” of its history, signaling a dangerous new chapter in the volatile relationship between the two Horn of Africa nations.

The pointed exchange threatens to unravel a fragile 2018 peace accord that ended decades of hostility and earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

In a recent interview with state broadcaster EBC, Abiy argued that Ethiopia’s landlocked status was a “mistake made three decades ago” that “will be corrected tomorrow.”

“The Red Sea was part of Ethiopia before thirty years ago,” Abiy stated, linking the lack of a coastline to a series of persistent “little challenges” facing the nation of over 120 million people.

His comments were echoed by other senior officials, suggesting a coordinated government effort to press the issue. State Minister of Finance Eyob Tekalign asserted that “Ethiopia’s national interest is more definitive” now and that the country is “ready to stand strong against anyone who opposes” it.

Ethiopia’s military has also adopted the assertive new tone. Brigadier General Teshome Gemechu, a senior defense ministry official, described sea access as a matter of “national survival,” claiming Ethiopia has a “historical” right to the Port of Assab.

“Assab was part of our territory. We lost it due to the illegitimacy of the then transitional government,” Teshome said, referencing the administration in power when Eritrea gained its independence. He added, however, that a diplomatic solution remains Ethiopia’s priority.

Ethiopia became the world’s most populous landlocked country after Eritrea, a former Ethiopian province, formally seceded in 1993 following a three-decade war for independence and a UN-monitored referendum. The secession deprived Addis Ababa of its entire coastline, including the crucial ports of Assab and Massawa.

Lingering border disputes between the two nations later erupted into a devastating war from 1998 to 2000, which killed tens of thousands and resulted in a lengthy, frozen conflict.

Eritrea condemns “reckless saber-rattling”

Eritrea’s government has forcefully rejected Ethiopia’s claims. In a social media post on September 3, Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel dismissed the statements as a “resurgence of reckless saber-rattling.”

He defended the legitimacy of Eritrea’s 1993 independence vote, calling it an “inalienable and exclusive national political prerogative” that was not subject to approval from Ethiopia.

Yemane characterized Ethiopia’s historical arguments as “political hogwash” that is “too boring and fallacious for serious discourse.”

The public dispute marks a severe deterioration in relations since the 2018 peace agreement. Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki became close allies, most notably during the recent two-year war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, where Eritrean forces fought alongside the Ethiopian army.

The push for sea access is a cornerstone of Abiy’s foreign policy. This determination was highlighted in January 2024 when Ethiopia signed a controversial preliminary deal with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, to lease a port in exchange for potential recognition of its sovereignty.

The memorandum of understanding with Somaliland outraged Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory, and drew condemnation from regional and international partners.

Analysts fear that Ethiopia’s increasingly vocal claims on Eritrean territory, combined with its actions regarding Somaliland, could further destabilize a region already grappling with conflict, climate change, and economic hardship. The Red Sea is a vital artery for global trade, and any conflict there could have far-reaching consequences.

While Ethiopian officials maintain that diplomacy is their preferred path, their recent rhetoric has placed the Horn of Africa on high alert for a potential new conflict.