MOGADISHU, Somalia – China is ramping up its security and diplomatic presence in Somalia, a development analysts view as a direct response to the expanding partnership between Taiwan and Somaliland—a relationship that risks igniting new tensions in the already volatile Horn of Africa.

The Chinese Embassy in Mogadishu confirmed last week that it had discussions with Somalia’s Police Force Coast Guard aimed at boosting cooperation. The talks, as announced on social media platform X by the embassy, focused on coastal security and underscored a mutual commitment to “safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Though official communications remained carefully broad, Caasimada Online sources allege Chinese officials encouraged Somali authorities to recruit and arm personnel from northern Somaliland regions and deploy them along the Somaliland coast—an explosive proposal given the historical dispute between Mogadishu and Hargeisa.

The intensified diplomatic activity follows closely on the heels of a new maritime and fisheries cooperation pact signed between Taiwan and Somaliland, two self-governing democracies striving for international recognition.

A widening geopolitical rift

The agreement has drawn fierce criticism from Beijing, which sees Taiwan as a renegade province destined for reunification with the mainland, even by force if necessary. China staunchly opposes any diplomatic relations between Taiwan and other nations, considering such interactions violations of its “One China” policy.

Somalia, viewing Somaliland as an inseparable part of its national territory, has likewise rejected the Taiwan-Somaliland accord.

Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 following a violent civil war, yet remains internationally unrecognized despite maintaining its government, security forces, and currency for over 30 years.

Its relationship with Taiwan marks a significant diplomatic step, exemplified by Taipei opening a representative office in Somaliland’s capital, Hargeisa, alongside the provision of development aid.

Taiwan, however, defends the agreement vigorously, insisting on its sovereign right to establish relations with other independent entities.

Soft power and strategic influence

In reaction, China’s Ambassador to Somalia, Wang Yu, has accelerated a series of high-profile meetings in Mogadishu. This engagement signifies a notable shift for China, which traditionally avoided direct involvement in Somalia’s security challenges, particularly the fight against al-Shabaab, spearheaded mainly by the African Union.

Beijing’s current strategy appears to combine security commitments with soft-power diplomacy. On Wednesday, Somalia’s Ambassador to China, Hodan Osman, hosted Somali senators and officials in Beijing in what she described as an “experience-sharing program.”

“This visit is part of broader efforts to strengthen bilateral cooperation between Somalia and China across important sectors,” Osman stated via social media.

Observers in Mogadishu regard Osman, a Mandarin-speaking former translator for the Chinese Embassy, as a crucial intermediary for Beijing. Her position and experience are seen as particularly valuable assets to China’s strategic interests amid intensifying international competition in the region.

Fears of destabilization

China’s diplomatic influence has also reached sensitive and contested territories within Somalia. Recently, the Chinese Embassy delivered food aid to Las Anod, the administrative capital of the SSC-Khaatumo region. This region recently declared allegiance to the Federal Government of Somalia after months of deadly clashes and a breakaway from Somaliland’s control.

Analysts widely interpret this direct involvement in an unstable region as a calculated effort by Beijing to leverage internal Somali divisions.

Experts caution that China’s increasing activity, particularly around the contentious Somaliland-Somalia issue, could exacerbate already fragile regional dynamics.

“China’s increasing involvement—particularly in regions like Somaliland that have long enjoyed relative stability—could heighten political tensions and destabilize the area,” warned a regional analyst quoted by Somali media.

As Beijing and Taipei project their sovereignty dispute onto the Horn of Africa, the danger grows that longstanding local conflicts could be inflamed by global geopolitical rivalry, threatening to unravel delicate and hard-won stability.