CAIRO, Egypt – Growing signs that Egypt is refusing to deploy a promised battalion to a new African Union mission in Somalia are threatening to derail the entire operation, forcing emergency measures to prevent a security collapse in the war against al-Shabaab.

What AU officials are publicly calling a “delay,” sources on the ground and diplomats describe as an “increasing unwillingness” from Cairo to participate. The stance has forced the AU to extend the mandate of a Burundian contingent to plug the gap and has exposed deep frustrations over the structure and funding of the new stabilization force.

The 1,091 Egyptian soldiers were a pledged component of the African Union Stabilization Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and were already designated for deployment in the strategically vital Middle Shabelle region. Their absence has now left a critical area exposed as the previous AU mission, ATMIS, continues its drawdown.

Egyptian authorities, according to sources familiar with Cairo’s position, have made no secret of their frustration with the AUSSOM framework. They believe the mission is critically under-resourced and are wary of committing troops to an operation they fear is being set up to fail.

Frustrations with the mission’s framework

While Cairo has not issued a formal refusal, its inaction and the concerns it has raised privately point to two major objections.

Firstly, Egyptian officials are reportedly deeply dissatisfied with the small number of soldiers allocated to AUSSOM to secure vast and volatile territories. They believe the force size is inadequate for the complex task of protecting civilians and supporting the Somali National Army against a resilient al-Shabaab insurgency.

Secondly, and more critically, Cairo has voiced alarm over the lack of a sustainable funding mechanism for the mission. AUSSOM is facing an estimated annual shortfall of over $160 million.

Unlike its predecessor, ATMIS, it does not have a clear financial pipeline from the United Nations or other international partners. This has led to Egyptian fears of being embroiled in a poorly funded and logistically unsupported mission.

“The unwillingness to deploy is rooted in a genuine concern that the mission, as currently structured, is not viable,” said a security analyst familiar with the negotiations. “Cairo does not want its soldiers left in a vulnerable position by a mission that lacks the funds and the numbers to be effective.”

Diplomacy fails to break impasse

The standoff persisted even after a high-level visit to Egypt by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who concluded talks with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on July 8. While joint statements reaffirmed security cooperation based on an August 2023 protocol, they offered no resolution or new timeline for the deployment, a silence that has only amplified concerns.

In response to the crisis, the AU Peace and Security Council has been forced to extend the mandate of Burundi’s 1,900-strong contingent for six months, preventing an immediate security vacuum as the ATMIS drawdown proceeds on schedule.

The situation places the AU in a challenging position, highlighting the difficulty of securing firm commitments from member states for high-risk and costly peace operations.

It also complicates Egypt’s regional strategy, where it has sought to position itself as a key security guarantor for Somalia amid a fierce rivalry with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Ethiopia’s controversial port deal with Somaliland.