The volatile Horn of Africa is now the stage for a high-stakes geopolitical chess match, with a new report alleging that the United Arab Emirates is deliberately orchestrating a deal for Ethiopia to lease a military base in Somaliland.
This is not merely a regional dispute over a port; it is the calculated weaponization of a nation’s sovereign territory in a shadow war for influence between the UAE and Turkey. The move threatens to unravel a fragile peace, derail diplomacy, and push the entire region toward a multi-party confrontation.
What it means: The export of a rivalry
At its heart, this crisis represents the full-scale export of the fierce rivalry between the UAE and Turkey into one of the world’s most vulnerable regions. Somalia has become the battleground, and the core issues of Ethiopian sea access and Somaliland’s quest for statehood have become pawns in a much larger game.
From partnership to proxy war: For years, Gulf states and Turkey have vied for influence in Somalia through investment, aid, and security assistance. This alleged move by the UAE marks a dramatic escalation from competition to confrontation, using Ethiopia as a proxy to undermine Turkey’s strategic gains.
Weaponizing sovereignty: The UAE’s strategy is particularly insidious because it leverages a pre-existing asset—a military base it built in Berbera—and exploits both Ethiopia’s strategic desperation and Somaliland’s political ambitions. By structuring the deal as a bilateral agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the UAE can act as the architect of the crisis while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability.
The death of neutrality: This maneuver forces regional actors to pick sides, extinguishing any hope of neutrality. It transforms a historically bilateral dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia into a complex web of alliances, making a diplomatic solution exponentially more difficult.
The players and their motives: A tangled web of ambition
Understanding this crisis requires unpacking the motivations of each key actor, each pursuing a high-stakes goal.
The United Arab Emirates (The Architect): Alarmed by the 2024 Turkey-Somalia defense pact that granted its rival, Turkey, control over Somalia’s coastline, the UAE made a decisive countermove. By handing Ethiopia a naval base, it simultaneously checks Turkish power, reasserts its influence in the vital Red Sea/Gulf of Aden corridor, and punishes Somalia for aligning with Ankara.
Ethiopia (The Beneficiary): Landlocked since Eritrea’s independence, securing sea access is an existential issue for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The UAE’s offer presents a golden opportunity to achieve this long-held dream, complete with a ready-made military facility, a prize for which Ethiopia appears willing to risk regional condemnation and conflict.
Somaliland (The Enabler): For the self-declared republic, this is the ultimate transaction. By leasing the port, Somaliland is trading its most valuable asset—strategic geography—for implicit support and potential future recognition from a regional hegemon like Ethiopia. It is a gamble to break its decades-long political isolation.
Turkey (The Target): The 10-year defense deal was a major strategic victory for Ankara, positioning it as the primary security guarantor in the region. The UAE’s move is a direct challenge to this new status, aimed at rendering the Turkish naval commitment more complex and dangerous.
Somalia (The Victim): Mogadishu is fighting a battle on two fronts: protecting its territorial integrity from Ethiopia’s ambitions while also confronting the alleged sabotage by the UAE, a nation it once considered a key partner. The deal is an existential threat to the Somali state.
How diplomacy failed: A cascade of countermoves
The crisis reveals how quickly diplomacy can collapse when a major power acts as a spoiler. Turkey’s initial attempt to mediate a peaceful solution—one that would grant Ethiopia commercial, not military, access—was a viable off-ramp. Ankara even enlisted Qatar to pressure Somaliland.
However, this delicate process was shattered by a rapid series of defensive escalations. Viewing the Berbera plan as an imminent threat, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made a desperate dash to Cairo, securing a defense pact with Egypt—a primary rival of Ethiopia.
While intended as a deterrent, this move was the final nail in the coffin for dialogue. Addis Ababa interpreted Somalia’s alignment with its adversary as a hostile act, justifying the abandonment of talks and the finalization of the deal with Somaliland.
The result is a dangerous new geopolitical alignment: Ethiopia, Somaliland, and the UAE on one side, facing a loose bloc of Somalia, Turkey, and Egypt on the other.
The alleged actions of the UAE have pushed the Horn of Africa to the edge of a precipice. This is no longer a contained dispute. It is a multi-layered conflict where local grievances serve as fuel for a larger proxy war. The stability of the entire region now hangs in the balance, held hostage by the strategic ambitions of rival powers.
A miscalculation by any party could easily ignite a wider conflict, with devastating consequences for a region already beset by instability, drought, and violence. The new fault lines being drawn are not on a map but between capitals, and they are pushing the Horn of Africa dangerously close to the breaking point.