BELED-HAWO, Somalia – Somalia’s federal government is rapidly consolidating control over the strategic Gedo region, actively recruiting local forces and ousting troops loyal to the semi-autonomous Jubaland state in a major escalation of a long-simmering political dispute.
The move, triggered by deadly clashes last month, threatens to destabilize southern Somalia further and unravel the country’s fragile federal structure. It effectively reverses a year-old policy and places the central government in direct opposition to Jubaland’s President, Ahmed Madobe, whose recent re-election, Mogadishu has refused to recognize.
Following a significant battle in the border town of Beled-Xaawo on July 22, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) launched an aggressive recruitment drive. These new federally-backed forces, composed of clan militias and defectors from Jubaland’s security apparatus, pushed regional troops out of Beled-Xaawo on July 30 and the nearby area of Tuulo Amiin on August 11.
Federal military presence in Beled-Xaawo alone has swelled to an estimated 500 soldiers, with recruitment and training ongoing. The government’s strategy hinges on “nationalizing” local forces — integrating them into the federal command structure with the promise of regular salaries and equipment.
High-profile defections
In a significant blow to the Jubaland administration, the recruitment effort is being spearheaded by Abdirashid Hassan Abdinur, better known as Abdirashid Janan. Janan, a controversial figure who was, until recently, Jubaland’s security chief for the Gedo region, has a complex history that includes accusations of serious human rights violations, according to Human Rights Watch. His switch of allegiance provides the federal government with a crucial and influential operative in the region.
“The plan to nationalize these forces is progressing well,” stated Colonel Aadan Axmed Xirsi, a Somali National Army (SNA) officer in Gedo.
Officials in Mogadishu are reportedly spending significant sums to persuade local commanders and district officials to abandon the Jubaland administration. The effort is part of a broader political campaign to erode support for President Madobe among Gedo’s clans and political leaders.
Amid the tensions, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud issued a public appeal on Tuesday to Jubaland forces that had crossed into neighboring Kenya to retreat, promising them amnesty. “No one will be punished,” a presidential statement read, guaranteeing their “safety and security.”
While the federal government has successfully integrated forces in the districts of Garbaharey and Buurdhuubo, it faces resistance. A formidable contingent of over 2,000 Jubaland Darawish forces, under the command of General Cabaas Ibraahim Gurey, remains in the southern Gedo districts of Ceelwaaq and Baardheere. General Gurey, known for his loyalty to the Jubaland leadership, has so far remained silent on the federal government’s overtures.
Furthermore, Mohamed Hussein Abdi, the district commissioner of Doolow, remains a staunch holdout, refusing to sever ties with Jubaland. This contrasts with several other district commissioners who have already aligned with Mogadishu. The federal government’s ability to win over these remaining pockets of resistance will be critical to its success.
Deep-rooted political conflict
The struggle for Gedo is central to the power contest between Mogadishu and the federal member states, a core challenge in Somalia’s state-building efforts. The region holds significant political weight and is often a flashpoint during election cycles.
The current crisis stems directly from Jubaland’s presidential election on November 25, 2024, which saw Ahmed Madobe secure a controversial third term. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre declared the election illegal, referring to Madobe as the “former leader.”
This marks a dramatic policy reversal for Mohamud’s administration. In July 2023, his government returned Gedo to Jubaland’s control after it had been managed directly from Mogadishu under the previous federal administration of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo. Farmaajo had seized control of Gedo in 2020 after rejecting Madobe’s 2019 election victory.
With control of Gedo now primarily in federal hands once more, Villa Somalia aims to cement its authority over the entire region, a move widely seen as positioning for the next national presidential election. The ongoing military and political maneuvers underscore the deep-seated tensions over resources, power, and the future of Somalia’s federal system.