Addis Ababa (Caasimada Online) – Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived in Addis Ababa on Sunday for high-stakes talks with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, set against a backdrop of deeply fractured relations over a contentious port deal and simmering regional tensions.

While the Somali leader is officially in the Ethiopian capital to attend a United Nations food security summit, the bilateral meeting with his Ethiopian counterpart is poised to dominate the visit. The talks are expected to address the severe diplomatic fallout from Ethiopia’s January 2024 agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland, a deal that Mogadishu views as a violation of its sovereignty.

The visit is the latest in a flurry of diplomatic activities by President Mohamud, who is navigating one of the most perilous moments for Horn of Africa stability in years. His arrival from Djibouti follows recent trips to Egypt and Turkey, key regional powers, as he seeks to shore up support for Somalia’s territorial integrity.

A deepening rift over sea access

Relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa plunged into crisis after Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, a territory that declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but is not internationally recognized. The agreement would grant landlocked Ethiopia a 50-year lease on a 20-kilometer stretch of coastline for a naval base in return for potential future recognition of Somaliland’s statehood.

Somalia immediately denounced the deal as an “act of aggression” and has since engaged in a robust diplomatic campaign to isolate Ethiopia and nullify the agreement. Tensions were further highlighted recently when Somalia reportedly rejected participation in a proposed naval exercise that included Ethiopia, viewing it as another attempt by Addis Ababa to assert maritime ambitions.

The meeting between Mohamud and Abiy is the first of its kind in months and will be closely watched for any signs of a diplomatic breakthrough, although expectations for a resolution remain low.

Beyond the maritime dispute, the two leaders are expected to discuss the volatile security situation within Somalia, particularly in the strategic Gedo region. The area, which borders Ethiopia, has recently seen renewed clashes between forces of the federal government and the regional administration of Jubaland.

The presence of Ethiopian troops in Gedo is a further point of contention. While thousands of Ethiopian soldiers serve as part of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which is mandated to help fight the al-Shabaab insurgency, others operate under a separate bilateral arrangement. Mogadishu has previously stated that all non-ATMIS Ethiopian forces must leave the country, a demand fueled by the MoU with Somaliland.

A flurry of diplomatic maneuvering

President Mohamud’s journey to Addis Ababa was preceded by a crucial stop in Djibouti, where he met with President Ismail Omar Guelleh. According to a statement from the Somali presidency, the two leaders discussed strengthening strategic ties in security and counter-terrorism. Mohamud also appealed for Djibouti’s assistance in addressing a severe drought in Somalia’s Awdal region, which lies on the border with Djibouti and Somaliland.

Humanitarian agencies, such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), have warned that drought conditions are worsening across the region, leading to food insecurity and displacing communities.

The leaders in Djibouti affirmed that “the stability, unity, and progress of Somalia are the foundation for the peace and stability of the entire region,” a statement seen as an indirect message regarding the ongoing tensions in the region.

The official purpose of the Addis Ababa visit is the Second UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake (UNFSS+4), which will take place from July 27 to 29. The summit aims to review progress on achieving sustainable food systems.

However, for the Somali delegation, the diplomatic discussions on the sidelines are of paramount importance as they seek to navigate a complex web of geopolitical and internal challenges that threaten to destabilize the Horn of Africa.