Kismayo, Somalia – High-stakes talks between Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the leader of the semi-autonomous Jubaland state, Ahmed Madobe, have collapsed without an agreement, marking a significant setback in efforts to resolve a deepening political crisis over a disputed regional election.

President Mohamud departed Kismayo, the interim capital of Jubaland, on Monday morning after two days of intense negotiations failed to bridge the gap between the federal government and one of its most powerful member states, according to sources close to the talks.

The failure of the Kenyan-mediated dialogue threatens to exacerbate instability in the Horn of Africa nation as it grapples with a persistent Islamist insurgency and a contentious national electoral reform process.

In a brief and carefully worded statement, the presidential palace, Villa Somalia, claimed “progress was made” and that consultations would continue. However, the statement conspicuously omitted Madobe’s name and failed to mention any specific points of agreement, a stark contrast to reports from Kismayo of a complete stalemate.

Irreconcilable differences

At the heart of the dispute are fundamental disagreements over the legitimacy of Jubaland’s recent presidential election and the future of Somalia’s federal system.

According to officials familiar with the negotiations, President Mohamud presented a set of core demands, urging Madobe to:

• Annul the results of the recent Jubaland election, which secured him another term.
• Commit to the implementation of a universal suffrage system, often referred to as “one-person, one-vote,” for future elections.
• Rejoin the National Consultative Council (NCC), a key forum for dialogue between Mogadishu and the Federal Member States.

Madobe, a long-serving and influential figure in Somali politics, reportedly held firm on his position, insisting that the federal government must first formally recognize his election victory before any other issues could be discussed.

“Each side was adamant, which led to the deadlock,” a source with knowledge of the talks told Caasimada Online. “There was no path forward.”

The Kenyan mediation team, which had been facilitating the discussions, also departed Kismayo for Nairobi after the impasse became clear.

A widening political rift

The collapse of the Kismayo summit highlights the frayed relationship between the central government in Mogadishu and several of its federal member states. The National Consultative Council was designed to be the primary mechanism for consensus-building on critical national issues, but political boycotts have undermined its authority.

Jubaland and the powerful Puntland state have been particularly critical of President Mohamud’s administration, accusing it of centralizing power and failing to adhere to the country’s provisional constitution.

The talks in Kismayo were seen as a crucial test of Mohamud’s ability to mend fences as his presidential term nears its end. The timing of his visit was significant, coming just a week after Madobe met with his Puntland counterpart and other opposition figures in Nairobi.

That meeting resulted in the formation of the “Somalia Future Council,” a new political bloc established to navigate what its founders termed a “transitional period” for the country—a move widely interpreted as a direct challenge to the federal government’s authority.

As President Mohamud faces mounting political opposition, the failure to secure a deal with Jubaland could embolden his rivals and further complicate national priorities. These include the planned transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to full Somali security responsibility and the ambitious goal of holding the country’s first one-person, one-vote election in decades.

Despite the optimistic official communique suggesting future dialogue, the deep-seated mistrust and irreconcilable positions laid bare in Kismayo signal a period of heightened political uncertainty for Somalia.