MOGADISHU, Somalia – The Federal Government of Somalia lifted a controversial, months-long flight ban to the southern port city of Kismayo on Wednesday, signaling a potential de-escalation in the protracted political standoff with the semi-autonomous state of Jubaland.
The resumption of air traffic, including crucial routes to the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, was confirmed by Jubaland officials, bringing relief to residents and businesses crippled by the suspension.
“The flights have officially resumed after the blockade was lifted,” Abdilahi Dhubad Shil Omar, Jubaland’s Minister of Transport, told local media.
Commercial flights to and from Kismayo’s main airport were halted for several months, a move widely seen as a tactic by the central government in Mogadishu to exert political pressure on Jubaland’s leadership.
The embargo had a severe impact on the local population, disrupting commerce and preventing citizens from accessing essential services, including specialized medical care in Nairobi.
Political rift at the core
The flight ban was a direct consequence of a deep-seated political dispute between Mogadishu and the Jubaland administration, led by President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, widely known as “Madobe.”
Tensions escalated dramatically following Madobe’s re-election for a third term on November 25, 2024. The federal government refused to recognize the election results, declaring the process unconstitutional and a violation of term limits. This denunciation was the latest flashpoint in an ongoing struggle over the division of powers, resource allocation, and constitutional authority between the central government and Somalia’s federal member states.
Mogadishu’s strategy of isolating Kismayo by air was intended to undermine Madobe’s authority and restrict his movements. However, the policy proved largely ineffective after Madobe successfully traveled to neighboring Kenya, a key ally, demonstrating the limits of the federal government’s enforcement power and ultimately prompting a reversal of the ban.
Jubaland, which borders both Kenya and Ethiopia, is a strategically critical region in the Horn of Africa. Its main city, Kismayo, boasts a significant port and airport, making it a vital economic and logistical hub. The state also serves as a crucial buffer zone in the long-running conflict against the Al-Shabaab extremist group.
President Madobe, a former militant commander who played a key role in driving Al-Shabaab out of Kismayo in 2012 with the support of Kenyan forces, has maintained a firm grip on power. His administration has often been at odds with Mogadishu over control of regional security forces and the extent of federal authority.
Kenya has historically maintained strong ties with Madobe’s government, viewing a stable Jubaland as essential to its security interests, as it prevents Al-Shabaab from establishing a haven along its border. This relationship has often been a source of friction between Nairobi and Mogadishu, with the Somali federal government accusing Kenya of interfering in its internal affairs.
A step towards dialogue?
The decision to lift the flight restrictions is being interpreted as a pragmatic step by the federal government, acknowledging that the blockade caused significant hardship for ordinary Somalis without achieving its political objectives.
While the move eases immediate humanitarian and economic pressures, the fundamental political disagreements between Mogadishu and Jubaland remain unresolved. The dispute over Madobe’s election and the broader constitutional questions about Somalia’s federal model continue to pose significant challenges to the nation’s stability and state-building efforts.
Analysts suggest that for long-term progress, the lifting of the flight ban must be followed by genuine dialogue and a political settlement that addresses the core grievances of both sides.
The international community, which provides substantial financial and security assistance to Somalia, has repeatedly urged all parties to resolve their differences through negotiation, maintaining focus on the collective fight against Al-Shabaab and the country’s development goals.