Ankara, Türkiye — Türkiye plans to begin drilling for oil off Somalia’s coast by 2026, energy minister said — offering the clearest timeline yet for turning a headline hydrocarbon deal into actual wells.
Speaking to reporters in Ankara on Wednesday, Alparslan Bayraktar said Türkiye had completed seismic work in three offshore zones and was now preparing for deep-water drilling once it finishes analysing the data, according to Middle East Eye, which first reported his remarks.
“Most likely 2026 will be a drilling year for us in Somalia’s offshore region,” he said, adding that officials expect to announce the results in January, once they finalise the surveys.
Bayraktar said Türkiye would deploy “recently acquired vessels” for the next phase and warned that operating in waters as deep as 3,000 metres would be technically demanding and costly.
Offshore push
Ankara sent the seismic research ship Oruc Reis to Somali waters in October 2024 after parliament authorised naval deployments to protect joint oil and gas exploration.
The vessel has carried out 3D seismic surveys across three licensed offshore zones, each covering about 5,000 square kilometres, under an inter-governmental cooperation agreement that grants exploration rights to state-owned Turkish Petroleum.
Turkish officials say the Oruc Reis worked off Somalia for close to ten months, escorted by naval frigates amid piracy risks, al-Shabaab activity, and broader insecurity along the country’s long, thinly policed coast.
Bayraktar’s comments suggest Ankara now believes the seismic data is mature enough to justify test wells in the most promising structures. But he stressed that any drilling campaign will still depend on the final interpretation of the surveys and follow-up technical studies.
The minister also confirmed plans for onshore drilling in Somalia. He said Türkiye aims in 2026 “to move from seismic studies to direct drilling in the onshore block” awarded under the same partnership.
Those plans face a different set of obstacles. Bayraktar said there is “not even road access” to the designated onshore area, meaning the partners must build basic infrastructure before they can move rigs and heavy equipment inland.
A Somali source familiar with the project told Middle East Eye that authorities will soon launch a tender for road construction, with works due to finish ahead of drilling.
Security also remains a concern. Central and southern Somalia still face attacks from al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab, while clan tensions and criminal networks complicate large-scale industrial projects.
Ankara says it is working with Somali authorities to secure both coastal and inland sites before drilling begins.
High stakes, high costs
Geo-seismic studies cited by the US government estimate that Somalia may hold at least 30 billion barrels of oil and gas. However, only a fraction is likely to be commercially recoverable.
The same assessments note that exploration typically takes 3 to 5 years before production can begin.
Energy specialists quoted in regional coverage say offshore exploration and initial drilling in Somali waters could cost Türkiye up to $500 million. Any full development of oil or gas fields would then run into several billion dollars.
For Somalia, one of the world’s poorest and most heavily indebted states, even modest commercial finds could transform public finances over time.
But officials and analysts also warn that early talk of offshore oil drilling in Somalia can fuel unrealistic expectations in a country still wrestling with debt relief, weak institutions, and a fragile federal system that must share any future revenues between Mogadishu and the member states.
Energy deal atop defence pact
The planned offshore campaign builds on a sweeping oil and gas cooperation deal the two governments signed on 7 March 2024.
That inter-governmental agreement, detailed by Somalia’s Petroleum Authority, covers exploration, development, production, transportation, refining, and sales of hydrocarbons from both onshore and offshore blocks.
It positions Turkish Petroleum as a central partner in mapping and exploiting Somali reserves.
The energy accord followed a separate 10-year Defense and Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, under which Türkiye will train, equip, and help rebuild Somalia’s navy while providing maritime security support to protect its territorial waters.
In July 2024, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured parliamentary approval to deploy Turkish naval assets to Somali waters, formally tying the hydrocarbon push to a longer-term security presence in the western Indian Ocean.
Analysts say these moves lock in a decade-long partnership that blends offshore oil ambitions with naval projection at a time when competition for influence in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is intensifying.
A decade-long bet on Somalia
Türkiye’s latest energy plans build on more than a decade of deep political and economic engagement in Somalia.
Ankara reopened its embassy in Mogadishu in 2011 and later inaugurated what it describes as its largest diplomatic complex worldwide in the Somali capital, according to the Turkish foreign ministry’s page on relations between Türkiye and Somalia.
Since a landmark visit by Erdogan that same year during a devastating famine, Turkish humanitarian and development assistance to Somalia has exceeded $1 billion, Turkish officials and aid agencies say.
The state development agency TIKA says it has implemented more than 500 projects in Somalia, from hospitals and schools to roadworks and municipal infrastructure, as noted in a summary of Somalia projects.
Turkish companies, meanwhile, operate Mogadishu’s main port and airport under long-term concession contracts, giving Ankara a commercial foothold at key gateways.
On the security side, the Turksom military academy and base in Mogadishu serves as Türkiye’s largest overseas training facility.
Turkish officials say they have trained thousands of Somali troops there and in Türkiye, forming a substantial share of the country’s regular army and elite units.
Somali officials frame the energy and defence packages as a way to convert a political alliance into long-term economic gains.
Mogadishu argues that working with Türkiye — a non-Western partner with experience in complex security environments — offers a chance to develop oil and gas without ceding all leverage to major international oil companies.
Others are more cautious. Analysts and diplomats warn that implementation of the twin security and hydrocarbons deals will depend not only on global oil prices and geology, but also on Somalia’s fraught domestic politics and its tense relations with Ethiopia.