DOHA, Qatar – The landmark normalisation deal between the United Arab Emirates and Israel is facing its toughest test yet, after a reported Israeli military strike on Qatar sent shockwaves across the Gulf and rattled a pillar of US regional policy.
Tensions were immediately visible in the aftermath, as UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan became the first world leader to visit Doha in a striking show of solidarity. His embrace of Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, was all the more remarkable given years of bitter rivalry between the two nations.
The symbolism was hard to miss: Gulf monarchies are growing increasingly anxious over Israel’s escalating military posture. A former senior US intelligence official told Middle East Eye that bin Zayed’s reaction reflected both admiration for Israel’s audacity and “terror” at the potential fallout.
The strike on Qatar comes after nearly two years of Israel’s devastating campaign in Gaza, which has killed more than 64,000 Palestinians, and just months after an Israeli attack on Iran in June unsettled Arab capitals.
A partnership under pressure
Cracks are beginning to show in the UAE’s alliance with Israel. This week, Abu Dhabi cancelled Israel’s participation in the Dubai Airshow — one of the world’s leading aviation events — in a sharp economic and diplomatic rebuke.
The decision followed earlier warnings from Emirati officials that Israel would cross a “red line” if it moved ahead with plans to formally annex the occupied West Bank.
Such moves threaten to unravel the 2020 Abraham Accords — the US-brokered agreements that normalised ties between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. Washington has celebrated the accords as a diplomatic breakthrough, but critics argue they betrayed the Palestinian cause.
The deals were built on a shared strategy: countering Iran, opposing Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood, and boosting security cooperation. For the UAE, they also promised advanced Israeli technology and closer defense ties.
The Abraham Accords tested
While the UAE has remained formally committed to the accords, Israel’s actions are fueling growing unease. The Gaza war has inflamed Arab public opinion, putting immense pressure on leaders who normalised relations with Israel.
“The Emiratis put themselves on the line for Israel after October 7,” Firas Maksad, director for the Middle East at the Eurasia Group, told Middle East Eye. “They condemned Hamas, sided with Israel — and got nothing in return.”
The UAE had publicly justified normalisation as a way to halt annexation of the West Bank and preserve a two-state solution. “It was to prevent annexation,” UAE Ambassador to Washington Yousef al-Otaiba said in 2021.
But just weeks before the Gaza war began in 2023, Otaiba admitted that “de facto annexation” was already underway, with the UAE powerless to stop it.
A delicate balancing act
Analysts say a full diplomatic rupture is unlikely, but the “warm peace” envisioned by the accords is cooling fast. Emirati leaders are now struggling to balance strategic interests with mounting regional anger.
“There is dissent about the partnership with Israel,” said Hussein Ibish, a senior scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
Even within the UAE, views differ. Business-focused Dubai is seen as the most enthusiastic about ties with Israel, while Abu Dhabi takes a more hard-nosed strategic view. Sharjah and Ras al-Khaimah remain more skeptical.
“The foundation of the Abraham Accords, as the Emiratis saw it, was to prevent annexation of the West Bank,” Maksad noted. “That premise is now under severe strain.”
At the same time, the UAE has pursued its own path, sometimes diverging from Arab consensus on post-war governance in Gaza. Abu Dhabi has expressed caution over proposals to restore the Palestinian Authority’s control of the enclave with a role for Hamas.
Now, as Qatar calls for a united Arab response to Israel’s latest actions, the question is how far Abu Dhabi is willing to go before the historic pact reaches a breaking point.