MOGADISHU, Somalia – The United Arab Emirates is actively negotiating a deal for Ethiopia to lease a UAE-built military base in Somaliland, a calculated move to counter Turkey’s expanding influence in the Horn of Africa, according to Somali officials and sources familiar with the sensitive negotiations.

This maneuver by Abu Dhabi is accused of deliberately inflaming the volatile dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia over sea access, effectively torpedoing Turkish-led mediation and pushing the strategically vital region closer to conflict.

At the center of the plan is a strategic military installation in the port of Berbera, Somaliland, which the UAE constructed. According to Caasimada Online sources, the UAE, alarmed by a major defense pact signed between its rival Turkey and the Somali government earlier this year, offered the base to landlocked Ethiopia.

The move provides a ready-made solution for Ethiopia’s decades-long quest for sea access while simultaneously striking at the heart of Turkish-Somali relations and challenging Somali sovereignty. To obscure its role, the UAE has reportedly structured the deal to be a bilateral agreement directly between Ethiopia and Somaliland, effectively making itself the unseen architect of the escalating crisis.

A calculated countermove

The UAE’s strategy is a direct response to the 10-year defense and economic cooperation agreement signed between Turkey and Somalia in February 2024. That landmark pact grants Turkey, a key ally of Mogadishu, the authority to defend Somalia’s extensive coastline, giving Ankara a powerful foothold in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

“The UAE is concerned about the growing influence of Turkey in the Horn of Africa, especially in Ethiopia and Somalia,” a source privy to the Somali government’s position stated.

To counter this, Abu Dhabi leveraged its existing assets in Somaliland, where its state-linked firm DP World also operates the main container port. By offering the adjacent military base to Ethiopia, the UAE is seen as exploiting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s strategic desperation for a naval port to undermine the Turkey-Somalia alliance.

Somaliland, the self-declared republic that is internationally recognized as part of Somalia, has reportedly agreed to the arrangement, which serves its own primary goal: leveraging its strategic location to gain political recognition.

Diplomacy derailed

The UAE’s gambit triggered a frantic but ultimately failed diplomatic sequence. Ethiopia, while accepting the offer, initially sought to manage the fallout by informing Turkey of its plans.

Ankara immediately engaged, alerting Mogadishu and attempting to broker an alternative that would grant Ethiopia commercial port access without violating Somali sovereignty. Somalia’s Defense Minister, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, was dispatched to Turkey, where he confirmed that any deal involving a military dimension or compromising Somali territory was off the table.

Turkey also enlisted Qatar to pressure the Somaliland leadership to halt the deal. But these efforts were quickly outpaced by Somalia’s defensive maneuvers.

Viewing the Berbera plan as a direct threat enabled by a foreign power, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud flew to Cairo to expedite a defense pact with Egypt, a regional rival of both Ethiopia and Turkey’s ally, Qatar. This move, intended as a deterrent, was interpreted by Addis Ababa as the final collapse of any Turkish-led dialogue, prompting it to move forward decisively with the Somaliland plan.

The crisis highlights how Somalia has become a pivotal battleground in the broader proxy struggle for influence between Gulf states and Turkey. The UAE’s alleged involvement in the alleged sabotage has effectively transformed a bilateral Somali-Ethiopian dispute into a multi-party confrontation.

The standoff now pits an alignment of Ethiopia, Somaliland, and the UAE against a bloc that includes Somalia, Turkey, and Egypt.

For Somalia, the deal represents a threat to its territorial integrity, orchestrated by a nation that was once a close ally. For the UAE, it is a high-stakes geopolitical play to contain a rival, with the stability of the Horn of Africa hanging in the balance.