ANKARA, Turkey – A year-long diplomatic initiative by Turkey to resolve a volatile dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia over sea access has collapsed, diplomats have confirmed, raising fears of renewed instability in the strategically vital Horn of Africa.
The talks stalled after Ethiopia rejected Somalia’s proposals for port access, demanding sovereign control over a stretch of coastline for a naval base—a condition Mogadishu deemed a violation of its territorial integrity.
Discussions have been suspended indefinitely, with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reportedly resuming discreet negotiations with the breakaway region of Somaliland over a contentious coastal lease agreement. The quiet collapse of the “Ankara process” was acknowledged on the sidelines of the Global Transport Connectivity Forum, held in Istanbul from June 27 to 29.
According to officials familiar with the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity, no formal meetings between the two sides have occurred since technical discussions broke down in April.
Sovereignty vs. Survival
The Turkish-led mediation, which began with high hopes last year, aimed to find a diplomatic solution to Ethiopia’s decades-long quest for reliable sea access. Landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia views a maritime outlet as an existential economic and security priority.
During the negotiations, the Somali government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, put forward a proposal for Ethiopia to co-manage and commercially utilize one of four major ports: Mogadishu, Hobyo, Merka, or Barawe.
However, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Gedion Timothewos, formally rejected these proposals in February. Prime Minister Abiy’s administration has been clear in its ultimate goal: sovereign access to the sea to establish an Ethiopian naval base. For Somalia, which has endured decades of civil war and is fighting to re-establish central authority, ceding sovereignty over any part of its territory was an unacceptable red line.
With the Turkish-led talks failing to yield a breakthrough, Addis Ababa has reportedly reverted to its controversial backup plan. Prime Minister Abiy’s government is said to have resumed quiet discussions with the administration in Somaliland, a region that declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but is not internationally recognized.
In January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that sent shockwaves through the region. The agreement proposed leasing a 20-kilometer (12-mile) strip of coastline to Ethiopia for 50 years in exchange for a stake in Ethiopian Airlines and, crucially, potential diplomatic recognition of Somaliland’s statehood.
Somalia immediately denounced the MoU as an “act of aggression” and a blatant violation of its sovereignty, severing diplomatic ties with Ethiopia and successfully rallying diplomatic support from the Arab League and other international partners. The deal, which has yet to be finalized, remains a primary source of tension.
Turkey’s diplomatic setback
The suspension of the talks marks a significant setback for Turkey, which has heavily invested in becoming a key diplomatic player and security partner in the Horn of Africa. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ankara has cultivated strong relationships with both Mogadishu and Addis Ababa.
Turkey operates its most extensive overseas military base in Mogadishu, where it trains the Somali national army. Simultaneously, it has become a key economic and defense partner for Ethiopia, notably supplying military drones.
Ankara hoped to leverage these ties to broker a landmark agreement that would secure its influence in the region, which sits astride critical global shipping routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The failure to reconcile the two sides’ fundamentally opposed positions underscores the deep-seated complexities of the dispute.
The communication breakdown now leaves a diplomatic vacuum. The historical animosity between Somalia and Ethiopia, which fought wars over the Ogaden region in the 20th century, provides a tense backdrop to the current standoff.
Regional analysts express concern that without a viable mediation track, the risk of miscalculation and conflict could increase, further destabilizing a region already grappling with political transitions, climate shocks, and extremist threats.