Somalia is once again facing a pivotal moment in its journey toward state-building and democracy. While the country has made progress in terms of federalism, dialogue, and institution-building, one stubborn obstacle continues to undermine national cohesion and democratic progress: the outdated and divisive 4.5 clan-based power-sharing system.
Originally designed as a post-conflict mechanism to ensure inclusivity, the 4.5 formula allocates political power among Somalia’s four major clans, with a “half-share” given to a coalition of minority groups. For nearly two decades, this system has dictated how members of parliament are selected—not by citizens, but by clan elders and appointed delegates.
While this may have been a necessary compromise in the aftermath of civil war, today it is a political liability that fuels division, corruption, and inequality. The time has come for Somalia to abandon the 4.5 model and commit to building a true democracy based on one person, one vote.
An outdated formula that entrenches division
The central flaw of the 4.5 system is that it institutionalizes clan identity as the basis of political representation. Instead of fostering unity and national identity, it deepens societal fragmentation. Political leaders are not chosen for their vision or competence, but for their loyalty to clan interests. This undermines the development of strong institutions and issue-based politics.
Moreover, the 4.5 system effectively disenfranchises Somalia’s citizens, especially women and minority communities. While women make up over 50% of the population, their representation remains symbolic at best, and consistently falls short of the promised 30% quota. For minority clans, the “0.5” designation is not just mathematically unjust—it is a perpetual reminder of second-class status.
Corruption and accountability deficits
Because Somalia’s elections under the 4.5 system are indirect, they lack transparency and accountability. Parliamentary seats are often sold to the highest bidder or captured through elite bargaining. The elected leaders are rarely accountable to the public—only to their financiers or clan patrons. This dynamic erodes trust in governance and fuels public frustration.
In essence, the 4.5 system has become a political marketplace where legitimacy is auctioned, not earned.
Missed opportunities and the need for change
Former President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” came into office with promises of electoral reform, including transitioning to universal suffrage. However, his administration failed to deliver on that promise. When his term ended in 2021 without elections being held, he controversially attempted to extend his tenure, citing delays. This move sparked armed confrontations in Mogadishu and significantly weakened his credibility.
In contrast, current President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has taken a more conciliatory and inclusive approach. While acknowledging the importance of one person, one vote, he also recognizes that Somalia is not yet institutionally or politically ready for full direct elections. His administration is now working toward a phased, negotiated electoral roadmap that balances long-term reform with short-term stability.
This pragmatic approach offers hope—but only if it leads to the eventual dismantling of the 4.5 model, not its entrenchment in a new form.
A realistic path forward
Dismantling the 4.5 system will not be easy. It requires constitutional reform, political consensus, and institutional development. However, several steps can and must be taken immediately:
1. Launch national consultations to build consensus on transitioning to citizen-based representation.
2. Pilot direct elections in secure regions as a proof of concept for broader reform.
3. Strengthen the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) to ensure it is empowered, impartial, and fully resourced.
4. Reform electoral laws and registration systems, including biometric voter ID and inclusive voter rolls.
5. Invest in civic education so that citizens understand their rights and the value of democratic participation.
The international community also has a key role to play—but not by imposing unrealistic timelines. Rather, donors and partners should support Somalia’s efforts through technical assistance, security backing, and patient diplomacy that respects Somali ownership of the process.
Conclusion: The clock is ticking
The 4.5 clan-based power-sharing system has outlived its purpose. What began as a temporary peacekeeping mechanism has become a structural barrier to democracy and national development. Every day it remains in place is another day Somalia delays its full emergence as a democratic nation where all citizens have an equal voice.
The goal of one person, one vote should no longer be treated as a distant aspiration. With the right political will and strategic planning, it can—and must—become the foundation of Somalia’s next chapter.
As the Somali proverb goes: “Dib u dhaca maanta, waa dhaawaca berri.” (Today’s delay is tomorrow’s wound.) Somalia cannot afford to wait any longer.
Written by Said Hassan (Careys), a security analyst. He can be reached at saidhassan18@live.com.