MOGADISHU, Somalia – High-stakes negotiations between Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and opposition leaders reached an impasse on Thursday over contentious constitutional changes that would fundamentally alter the country’s electoral system, threatening to deepen an already severe political crisis.
The talks, held in the capital, Mogadishu, stalled after the opposition coalition demanded the complete reversal of a newly ratified constitutional amendment that introduces direct presidential elections. The meeting concluded without resolution, though both sides have agreed to reconvene after further internal consultations, according to sources close to the discussions who spoke to Caasimada Online.
At the heart of the dispute is a push by President Mohamud’s government to move Somalia toward a “one-person, one-vote” electoral system. This would replace the complex, clan-based indirect voting model that has been in place for decades, a system in which clan elders and delegates elect members of parliament, who in turn select the president.
Clash over presidential election model
President Mohamud has championed the transition to universal suffrage as a cornerstone of his administration, arguing it is a critical step toward full democratization for the Horn of Africa nation. His government recently ratified the first four chapters of the provisional constitution, formalizing the shift to a presidential system and extending the terms of federal government bodies to five years.
However, opponents, including former presidents and the leader of the semi-autonomous Puntland state, accuse Mohamud of bypassing the necessary political consensus for such sweeping changes. They contend the amendments were pushed through unilaterally, viewing them as a power grab designed to centralize authority and undermine Somalia’s fragile federal structure.
The political standoff has escalated tensions across the country. In March, the Puntland administration declared it would operate independently of the federal government after the constitutional changes were approved by the federal parliament in Mogadishu, creating a constitutional crisis.
High-stakes constitutional changes
Somalia’s journey toward a stable, democratic state has been long and fraught with challenges, including decades of civil war and a persistent insurgency by the Al-Shabaab extremist group. The nation’s 2012 provisional constitution was intended to be a foundational document. However, the review and finalization process has been stalled for years amid political infighting.
For more than two decades, Somalia has relied on an indirect electoral system known as the “4.5 formula,” which distributes power among the four major clans and a coalition of smaller ones. While this model helped to manage clan rivalries and form governments, it has also been criticized for fostering corruption and political exclusion.
The move to a one-person, one-vote system is a long-held goal for many Somalis and is supported in principle by international partners. However, the United Nations and other key allies have repeatedly stressed the need for broad consensus on the electoral model and constitutional reforms to prevent further instability.
Thursday’s stalemate comes amid significant international pressure on President Mohamud to find a negotiated solution to the political gridlock. Diplomatic sources have expressed concern that a failure to achieve consensus could jeopardize security gains made against Al-Shabaab and undermine the state-building process.
Prior to the meeting with the president, the opposition Salvation Forum held its internal discussions to solidify its agenda, signaling a unified front against the government’s reforms.
While both the government and the opposition have agreed to continue the dialogue, the deep divisions over the future of Somalia’s political system cast a long shadow over the talks. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether the nation’s leaders can bridge the divide or risk plunging the country into more profound political uncertainty.