WASHINGTON, USA – President Donald Trump has issued a fervent call for an urgent resolution to the long-running dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), characterizing the situation as an “existential” matter for Egypt, remarks, made during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
“The dam has become a very serious problem,” Trump stated, emphasizing that the dispute transcends mere regional tension to become “a human and national issue for Egypt.”
“This dam represents life itself for the Egyptian people,” he stressed, urging a swift solution. “We have to find a solution, and we have to find it quickly.”
Trump’s comments, made as he discussed broader regional stability and transatlantic cooperation with Rutte, mark one of the strongest international appeals in recent months for accelerated negotiations. While the specific context of U.S. financial support mentioned by Trump for the dam’s past construction remains a point of contention and has been refuted by Ethiopian authorities who maintain the project is entirely self-funded, his renewed focus highlights the persistent deadlock.
A decade of dispute
Construction of the GERD, situated on the Blue Nile near Ethiopia’s border with Sudan, began in 2011. The project has since been a source of significant friction between the three Nile Basin countries: Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.
Ethiopia views the GERD as a cornerstone of its development and energy ambitions. The dam, Africa’s largest hydroelectric project, is set to be inaugurated in September 2025, following its filling in five stages between 2020 and 2024.
Once fully operational, it is expected to generate over 5 GW of electricity, more than doubling Ethiopia’s current power production and potentially transforming the nation of over 120 million people into a net energy exporter. Ethiopia maintains that the dam is vital for its electrification goals, as nearly half of its population still lacks access to electricity.
Conversely, Egypt, which relies on the Nile for approximately 97% of its fresh water, perceives the dam as an existential threat to its vital water supply. With a population of nearly 100 million, Cairo fears that a significant reduction in Nile flow could cripple its agriculture and severely impact its populace. Egypt has historically invoked its “natural and historical rights” to the Nile waters, often citing colonial-era agreements that allocated the vast majority of the river’s flow to itself and Sudan.
Sudan, positioned downstream from the GERD, has also expressed concerns. While recognizing the potential benefits of regulated water flow and flood protection from the dam, Khartoum has cautioned that Ethiopia’s unilateral actions could affect the safety of its own dams and water allocation. Sudan’s position has at times vacillated, seeking a balance between its own developmental needs and alignment with Egypt’s grievances.
Stalled negotiations
Negotiations aimed at a binding agreement on the GERD’s filling and operation have spanned over a decade, mediated by various international actors including the United States and the African Union, but have consistently failed to yield a comprehensive accord. Egypt announced the collapse of the latest round of GERD talks in December 2023, citing Ethiopia’s rejection of proposed technical and legal frameworks.
President Donald Trump’s administration had previously attempted to mediate the dispute, with some of those efforts drawing criticism for perceived partiality towards Egypt. In 2020, Trump controversially suggested Egypt might “blow up” the dam, a remark that drew strong condemnation from Ethiopia.
“We are trying to help reach a deal,” Trump concluded in his recent remarks, underscoring the urgency. “There’s no time to waste.”
The ongoing dispute remains a critical point of regional instability. While Ethiopia celebrates the imminent inauguration of the GERD as a symbol of national achievement and self-reliance, Egypt continues to seek international guarantees for its water security. The path to a mutually acceptable resolution remains elusive, with calls for accelerated and impartial negotiations persisting as the dam moves towards full operation.