KISMAYO, Somalia – Somalia’s Jubaland state has accused the federal government in Mogadishu of deliberately stoking conflict in the strategic Gedo region as a proxy for the escalating geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile River.
In a sharply worded statement, Jubaland’s security ministry claimed that recent military operations by federal forces in Gedo are driven by “hidden foreign agendas,” specifically designed to drag Somalia into the long-standing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
The accusation marks a dangerous new flashpoint in the deeply strained relationship between the Somali central government and its federal member states, threatening to destabilize the Horn of Africa nation further.
“Jubaland strongly believes that the new military aggression in Gedo carries a hidden foreign agenda, particularly related to the Nile River dispute, which is pulling Somalia into a conflict it has no stake in,” the statement released from the regional capital Kismayo declared.
Jubaland’s leadership directly implicated Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, alleging he is attempting to “dismantle the federal system” by dividing the Somali National Army (SNA) along political lines in Gedo.
The war of words follows intense clashes in late July and early August, which saw federal government forces, led by the controversial commander Abdirashid Janan, seize control of the key border town of Beledxaawo from Jubaland troops. The fighting reportedly resulted in over 30 fatalities and displaced numerous civilians.
The situation in Beledxaawo, which lies near the borders of both Ethiopia and Kenya, grew more complex this week. Reports emerged that Ethiopian military officers, who maintain a significant presence in Gedo, ordered the federal forces under Janan to vacate the town. This alleged ultimatum sparked large-scale protests on Thursday, with hundreds of residents taking to the streets to support the national army and denounce foreign interference.
“We reject any foreign order that undermines our right to self-governance,” said one protestor, who asked to remain anonymous for security reasons. “The national army is here to defend us. This is our city, and no foreign entity can dictate how we manage our security.”
A proxy battleground?
Analysts have increasingly warned that Somalia could become a theater for the Egypt-Ethiopia rivalry. Addis Ababa, which views the GERD as essential for its development, has been a long-time power broker in Somalia, maintaining troops in several regions, including Gedo, through a bilateral agreement outside the African Union mission’s mandate.
Cairo, which sees the dam as an existential threat to its water supply, has recently bolstered its ties with Mogadishu. Egypt signed a defense pact with Somalia and has supplied military hardware, a move widely interpreted as an attempt to counter Ethiopian influence in the region, particularly after Ethiopia signed a contentious port access deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland.
The potential for these tensions to spill over is high, especially with the anticipated inclusion of Egyptian troops in a new African Union mission in Somalia.
The federal government’s deployment of Abdirashid Janan to lead the Gedo operations has further inflamed the situation. Janan is a former Jubaland security minister with a long and complex history.
He has previously fought against the federal government and has been accused of serious human rights abuses by monitoring groups. Jubaland sees his recent alignment with Mogadishu as a direct provocation.
The central government in Mogadishu has rejected Jubaland’s accusations, blaming the administration of President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe) for instigating the violence. Mogadishu has since suspended government services in parts of Gedo.
This conflict is rooted in a long-standing constitutional crisis between Mogadishu and Kismayo. Tensions escalated significantly after President Madobe was re-elected for a third term in late 2024, a move the federal government deemed unconstitutional.
Jubaland has called for immediate international intervention to de-escalate the crisis and hold President Mohamud’s government accountable. The state warned that continued efforts to centralize power threaten to unravel Somalia’s fragile federal structure and could plunge the Gedo region into a broader, more devastating conflict.