CAIRO, Egypt – The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is actively pursuing a covert plan to partition Sudan, according to Arab and Western diplomatic sources. The move comes two years after Abu Dhabi was accused of fueling the country’s brutal civil war, a conflict that has plunged the nation into chaos and created the world’s largest displacement crisis.

This strategy mirrors the UAE’s playbook in other regional conflicts like Yemen and Libya, where it has exploited internal divisions to secure influence over resource-rich territories. Despite international condemnation, the UAE’s extensive military and financial backing for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues unabated, sources confirm.

With the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, regaining critical ground in the capital Khartoum and other strategic areas, the military momentum has shifted against the RSF and its commander, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti.”

In response to these battlefield losses, Emirati planners are reportedly pivoting to “Plan B”: creating a breakaway state in territories currently controlled by the RSF. Such an entity would guarantee the UAE a loyal proxy on the Horn of Africa and preserve its privileged access to Sudan’s vast gold reserves, fertile farmland, and critical Red Sea trade routes.

Evidence of this strategy is already emerging. Diplomatic sources revealed that the UAE recently facilitated a meeting in Nairobi, Kenya, between RSF leaders and allied tribal and political groups. The primary agenda was to finalize a political charter for a new separatist government, effectively laying the groundwork for a formal split.

A failed ceasefire and escalating brutality

The push for partition reportedly accelerated after a recent diplomatic gambit failed. The UAE proposed a Ramadan ceasefire to General al-Burhan, but he refused, demanding the unconditional surrender of the RSF. According to Sudanese and regional officials, this rejection was a turning point, prompting Abu Dhabi to fast-track its plan to establish Hemedti as the leader of a new statelet in western and southern Sudan.

Meanwhile, the RSF’s campaign of violence against civilians continues. While its leaders were meeting in Kenya, RSF fighters were accused of massacring more than 200 people, including children, in White Nile State. Eyewitnesses and human rights lawyers reported that civilians were slaughtered while attempting to flee across the Nile River, with harrowing footage showing a mass grave filled with victims wrapped in white shrouds.

The United States has formally accused the UAE-backed RSF of committing genocide. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the conflict as “a catastrophe of unprecedented scale and brutality.”

A pattern of regional fragmentation

Analysts argue that partitioning Sudan would be consistent with the UAE’s broader foreign policy ambitions. This approach includes:

• In Yemen: Backing southern separatist forces to control strategic ports and oil infrastructure.
• In Libya: Empowering eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar to dominate key airbases and energy facilities.

This strategy of fragmentation allows Abu Dhabi to dominate key trade corridors, secure vital resources, and install loyal political proxies across Africa and the Middle East.

The war in Sudan, ignited in April 2023 after the collapse of a power-sharing agreement, has killed tens of thousands and displaced over 11 million people. Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warns of the dangerous implications of the UAE’s latest move.

“The RSF is trying to achieve at the negotiating table what it has failed to win on the battlefield,” Hudson noted, “with the UAE as the key enabler.”