Mogadishu, Somalia — Somalia’s federal leadership and the semi-autonomous state of Jubaland have opened direct talks mediated by Kenya, a potential breakthrough in a long-simmering political and military standoff that has threatened regional stability, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe held a preliminary phone call facilitated by Noordin Haji, director-general of Kenya’s National Intelligence Service (NIS). The conversation marks the first significant step toward de-escalating tensions that have previously spilled into armed clashes along the Somalia–Kenya border.
Following the call, Madobe traveled to Nairobi on Saturday for further discussions, underscoring the seriousness of the engagement. The Kenyan-led mediation signals a concerted diplomatic push to reconcile the two leaders, whose dispute has hampered security cooperation and political progress in the Horn of Africa.
In the days leading up to the call, Haji, Kenya’s intelligence chief, reportedly made a discreet visit to Kismayo to lay the groundwork for talks.
The rift between President Mohamud’s government in Mogadishu and Madobe’s administration in Kismayo escalated after a contentious National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting in October 2024. The NCC is a key forum for dialogue between the federal government and Somalia’s Federal Member States (FMS).
Talks broke down over the framework for future elections. Mogadishu pushed for a centralized electoral commission to oversee all voting, including at the state level—seen by some as an attempt to consolidate federal power. Madobe argued that federal states should manage their own electoral processes, citing constitutional power-sharing arrangements.
The political impasse quickly turned violent. In late 2024, forces loyal to the federal government and Jubaland clashed in the strategic border town of Ras Kamboni. The conflict flared again in July 2025 in Beled Hawo, a key city in the Gedo region, with reports of troops from both sides crossing the porous border into Kenya—raising alarms in Nairobi.
Kenya’s mediation is driven by its own security interests. Jubaland serves as a critical buffer between Kenya and areas contested by the Al-Qaeda-linked group Al-Shabaab. Prolonged instability could create a security vacuum, offering militants an opening and directly threatening Kenya’s northeastern counties.
The Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF) are also major contributors to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), with troops stationed in Jubaland. Any conflict between Somali partners undermines that mission.
Nairobi has grown increasingly concerned by what it views as Mogadishu’s attempts to destabilize Madobe’s administration. This includes alleged federal plans to back a rival administration in Gedo, based in Garbaharey, which would effectively split Jubaland and weaken Madobe, a longtime Kenyan ally. According to the International Crisis Group, disputes over control of Gedo have been a persistent source of federal-state friction.
The standoff reflects deeper, unresolved tensions over Somalia’s federal model. Since its adoption, the division of power, resources, and security responsibilities between “Villa Somalia”—the presidency in Mogadishu—and the Federal Member States has remained a constant source of strain.
President Mohamud, serving a second non-consecutive term, has pursued a more centralized approach that often pits him against powerful regional leaders like Madobe. A former commander of the Ras Kamboni Brigades militia, Madobe has governed Jubaland since its formation in 2013 and has historically maintained close ties with Nairobi.
Fragile as they are, these initial talks offer a crucial chance to pull key players back from the brink. Success for the Kenyan-led mediation could reshape relations between Mogadishu and Kismayo—and bolster the wider stability of a region grappling with insecurity and political fragmentation.