ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Once seen as a reformist and regional stabilizer, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed now faces mounting criticism over a bold but increasingly fraught foreign policy in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa — one that analysts warn has weakened Ethiopia’s influence, isolated it diplomatically, and put core national interests at risk.

Since coming to power in 2018, Abiy has reframed Ethiopia’s landlocked status as an “existential” crisis. His aggressive push for sea access—a dramatic departure from his predecessors’ cautious diplomacy—has unsettled neighbors and raised regional tensions to dangerous new heights.

“Ethiopia’s need for sea access is real,” said Surafel Getahun, a Horn of Africa analyst. “But the way Abiy has pursued it — through high-risk unilateral moves and confrontational rhetoric — has left the country more vulnerable and isolated than ever.”

A deal that backfired: The Somaliland MoU

The most controversial move came in January 2024, when Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland — a self-declared breakaway region of Somalia. In exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence, Ethiopia would lease 20 kilometers of coastline for 50 years to establish a naval base and gain commercial port access.

The backlash was immediate and severe.

Somalia condemned the deal as a direct assault on its sovereignty, recalled its ambassador, and brought the issue to the African Union, United Nations, and Arab League.

The AU reiterated its support for Somalia’s territorial integrity, while Egypt and Gulf states, wary of Ethiopia’s growing assertiveness, expressed concern over the destabilizing effect of the agreement.

“Instead of unlocking new opportunities, the Somaliland MoU has triggered a diplomatic firestorm,” said Getahun. “It alienated key neighbors, drew widespread condemnation, and yielded no clear strategic gain.”

Rather than bolstering Somaliland’s case for recognition, the deal exposed its isolation. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s pursuit of alternative port access sparked suspicion in Djibouti — its primary trade gateway — and drew warnings from regional and international observers about the risk of renewed conflict in the Horn.

Fraying ties with Eritrea and Djibouti 

Once hailed as a historic breakthrough, Abiy’s 2018 peace agreement with Eritrea initially raised hopes for normalized ties and potential Red Sea access via Assab or Massawa. But the relationship quickly soured.

Eritrea’s military involvement in the Tigray war alongside Ethiopian forces drew global condemnation and further strained Ethiopia’s international standing. Eritrean troops remain deployed near the Ethiopian border, and the prospect of port access now appears more remote than ever.

“What started as a Nobel-winning peace turned into a strategic liability,” said Getahun. “Asmara remains deeply distrustful, and Ethiopia’s hopes for Eritrean ports have all but evaporated.” 

The fallout from Abiy’s Red Sea ambitions has extended beyond Somalia and Eritrea.

Djibouti — which currently handles over 95% of Ethiopia’s trade — was unsettled by Ethiopia’s overtures to Somaliland. Once a reliable partner, Djibouti has started diversifying its client base, reducing its dependence on Ethiopian cargo and hedging against further geopolitical uncertainty.

In Sudan, civil war has effectively closed the Port Sudan route. While not directly resulting from Ethiopian policy, the instability has removed a key alternative and created new security risks on Ethiopia’s northwestern border.

Kenya remains a relatively stable partner but plays a limited role in Ethiopia’s maritime access, focusing on Indian Ocean ports like Mombasa and Lamu.

Domestic instability and security overreach

At home, Ethiopia’s military remains stretched thin. The devastating Tigray conflict, which consumed enormous military and political capital, was followed by renewed violence in the Amhara and Oromia regions.

“Ethiopia is fighting multiple fires internally while trying to project power externally — that’s dangerous,” warned Getahun. “It weakens the country’s ability to lead regionally or defend its broader interests.”

Ethiopia’s traditional role as a security anchor in the Horn — including counterterrorism operations in Somalia — has eroded. Internal unrest has limited its capacity to participate in multilateral peacekeeping or regional stabilization efforts.

A strategy that undermines itself

Analysts warn that Abiy’s approach is undercutting the very objectives it was meant to achieve.

• Diplomatic Isolation: Ethiopia’s aggressive posture has alienated key neighbors and weakened its voice in critical negotiations — from GERD talks with Egypt to regional trade deals.
• Economic Vulnerability: The Somaliland MoU has failed to yield access while damaging relations with Djibouti, Ethiopia’s current lifeline. Any disruption in Djibouti could prove catastrophic.
• Rising Tensions: The deal has escalated tensions with Somalia and invited new forms of regional competition, with Egypt and Gulf actors exploiting Ethiopia’s rifts.
• Security Overstretch: Military commitments across multiple fronts — domestic and external — are diluting Ethiopia’s capacity to manage risks effectively.
• Eroded Credibility: Once seen as a regional stabilizer, Ethiopia is increasingly viewed as a destabilizing force outside multilateral norms.

“Ethiopia is paying a high price for a strategy meant to secure its future,” said Getahun. “Instead of expanding its influence, it has compromised it.”

Previous Ethiopian administrations — though equally aware of the need for port diversification — opted for more cautious approaches. They worked through regional bodies like the AU and IGAD, maintained stable ties with Djibouti, and pursued quiet, incremental gains rather than headline-grabbing deals.

“Ultimatums and unilateralism mark Abiy’s policy,” Getahun said. “But with the country facing deep internal instability, this is precisely the moment when diplomacy, not brinkmanship, is needed.”

Conclusion: A nation adrift in treacherous waters

Ethiopia’s Red Sea strategy under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has become a case study in overreach. What began as a bold attempt to solve a critical national challenge has, by many accounts, left the country in a more precarious position.

“The Red Sea’s strategic currents are treacherous,” Getahun concluded. “And Ethiopia, under its current navigation, risks drifting further from safety — and deeper into crisis.”

Analysts say reclaiming lost ground will require a return to multilateral diplomacy, a reset with neighbors, and a renewed focus on internal cohesion. Without that shift, the nation could find itself not just without a port but without a compass.