MOGADISHU, Somalia – A new research paper sheds light on the political instability and identity-based fragmentation gripping Somalia’s Gedo region, highlighting how clan dynamics, cross-border influences, and elite rivalries continue to shape the region’s uncertain future within the federal structure of Jubbaland.
Published by PeaceRep at the University of Edinburgh, the report explores how Gedo — a key region bordering Ethiopia and Kenya — has been caught in a tug-of-war between local clan factions, the federal government in Mogadishu, and the Jubbaland administration based in Kismayo. At the center of this struggle is the Marehan clan, which dominates Gedo but is deeply divided by internal sub-clan rivalries and elite disunity.
The authors, Dr. Nisar Majid and Khalif Abdirahman, trace the Marehan’s historical roots and territorial migrations, linking them to the clan’s evolving political identity and its complex role in shaping and resisting Jubbaland’s formation.
While Jubbaland was formally established in 2013, Gedo’s integration into the regional state has remained partial and contested — with Marehan elites often bypassing Gedo to seek influence in national power centers like Mogadishu and Kismayo.
A key turning point came during the presidency of Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” (2017–2022), himself a Marehan, whose government clashed with Jubbaland President Ahmed Madobe over control of Gedo.
Farmajo’s efforts to assert federal control saw temporary gains, including the deployment of Turkish-trained forces and the marginalization of influential local figures like Abdirashid “Janaan,” a controversial strongman previously aligned with Madobe. However, Farmajo’s tactics also fueled internal divisions among the Marehan and failed to produce a lasting political settlement.
The study notes that Gedo’s security further deteriorated after the fall of Janaan, with rival sub-clans competing for local power and influence. Violent clashes, particularly in towns like Luuq, Baardheere, and Dolo, have increased in frequency, reflecting the absence of coherent regional authority.
Since the election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in 2022, Gedo’s political status has remained ambiguous. Mohamud initially pulled back from the Jubbaland conflict to focus on countering Al-Shabaab. However, renewed tensions with Madobe have since erupted — most notably in the Ras Kamboni standoff of late 2024.
Meanwhile, local conflicts have escalated, with district-level violence in Baardheere, Luuq, and Dolo pointing to a breakdown of governance and growing clan militarization.
The report underscores how Marehan elites, particularly those from the influential Reer Diini sub-clan, have become politically dislocated from Gedo, prioritizing influence in the capital over grassroots reconciliation. This disconnection, the authors argue, has created a leadership vacuum and empowered rival sub-clans, fueling instability across the region.
Historical divisions between Marehan sub-clans — especially the divide between “Reer Guri” (long-established inhabitants) and “Galti” (newcomers) — continue to shape internal political contestation, weakening efforts to build a united front.
Regional dynamics further complicate the picture. Ethiopia and Kenya, both with military and political stakes in Jubbaland, have played shifting roles in Gedo’s affairs. Ethiopia’s once-strong influence has diminished, leaving no clear patron or stabilizing force in the region. At the same time, Kenya remains a key backer of Madobe.
The report also highlights how Marehan leaders’ closer historic ties with Hawiye elites in Mogadishu — compared to the Ogadeen — have enabled them to exert greater narrative influence at the federal level, though not enough to shift the power balance in Jubbaland decisively.
Despite their dominance in Gedo, the Marehan currently find themselves politically marginalized in both Mogadishu and Jubbaland, according to the report. The authors warn that without serious reconciliation efforts—both within the Marehan clan and with other local communities—Gedo is likely to remain unstable and contested.
“Only when Marehan political elites embark on a serious dialogue process concerning Gedo… will Gedo itself become a more coherent political entity,” the report concludes.
The findings offer a sobering reflection on Somalia’s wider state-building challenges, where federalism continues to be shaped as much by clan loyalties and external allegiances as by constitutional frameworks.