ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia – Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said his country must break free from the “shuttered doors and isolation” he blames for its poverty, dismissing suggestions that the Horn of Africa nation is destined to remain a “geographic prisoner.”

Speaking at the launch of his latest book, Medemer, on Tuesday night, Abiy declared: “If there is any Ethiopian who believes that Ethiopia will forever remain a geographic prisoner, that person is a dead one.”

He added that “it is not wise to assume that a country as large as Ethiopia should be handed to our children while encapsulated,” while insisting that “conflict and war” were not solutions.

Ethiopia has been landlocked since 1993, when Eritrea gained independence, and Abiy has repeatedly argued that maritime isolation has constrained the country’s economic growth. The issue has gained renewed urgency under his administration, as Addis Ababa looks for access to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Escalation with Eritrea

His latest comments follow a dramatic escalation earlier this month, when Abiy declared it was “only a matter of time” before Ethiopia regained access to the Red Sea port of Assab. He described Ethiopia’s loss of a coastline three decades ago as a “historic mistake” that would be corrected, framing sea access as a question of national survival.

Eritrea swiftly condemned those remarks, calling them “reckless saber-rattling” and a “disdainful distortion” of history. The pointed exchange has threatened to unravel the fragile 2018 peace accord that ended decades of hostility between the two countries and earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

In an interview with state broadcaster EBC, Abiy argued that “the Red Sea was part of Ethiopia thirty years ago,” linking the lack of a coastline to what he called persistent “little challenges” for the nation of 120 million people.

Senior officials echoed his message, with State Minister of Finance Eyob Tekalign warning that Ethiopia was “ready to stand strong against anyone who opposes” its national interests. Military officers also described access to Assab as a matter of “historical right” and “national survival,” though they emphasized diplomacy as the preferred path.

Eritrea, however, has rejected those claims outright. Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel defended the 1993 independence referendum as an “inalienable and exclusive national political prerogative,” dismissing Ethiopia’s historical arguments as “political hogwash.”

Tensions with Somalia 

Ties with Somalia have also been strained following a controversial 2024 memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway region that Mogadishu insists remains under its sovereignty.

The deal, which offered Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in exchange for recognising Somaliland’s independence, provoked a sharp backlash from Somalia’s government and heightened regional instability. Ankara stepped in to mediate, resulting in the Ankara Declaration in December 2024; however, tensions remain unresolved.

Analysts warn that Abiy’s increasingly vocal claims on Eritrean ports, combined with Addis Ababa’s overtures to Somaliland, risk further destabilizing the Horn of Africa, where conflict, climate change, and economic hardship already pose severe challenges.

While Abiy has repeatedly said diplomacy is the way forward, his renewed rhetoric over Red Sea access has left neighbours and international partners bracing for a dangerous new chapter in Ethiopia’s relations with Eritrea and Somalia.