Jubaland leader’s visit sparks Somalia-Kenya tensions

NAIROBI, Kenya – Somalia summoned Kenya’s ambassador to Mogadishu on Saturday following a contentious private flight the same day carrying Jubaland’s regional president, Ahmed Mohamed Islam, commonly known as “Madobe,” to Nairobi, escalating tensions between the two East African nations.

The move signals a potential deterioration of relations between the neighboring countries, already strained by political disagreements and border disputes.

The Somali federal government lodged a formal complaint with the Kenyan envoy on Saturday, expressing strong disapproval of Madobe’s unauthorized flight, which it alleges violated Somali airspace.

Sources within the Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed that the complaint demands an explanation within a specified timeframe regarding the “illegal action by a Kenyan aircraft that violated Somali airspace, turned off its radar, and transported an accused individual who is facing charges in a court of law.”

The flight marks Madobe’s first international trip since his controversial re-election in November 2024, a result vehemently rejected by the Somali federal government.

The disputed election and its aftermath have been a significant source of friction between Mogadishu and the Jubaland administration.

Kenya’s response crtical

According to Somali government sources, Kenya’s failure to explain the incident satisfactorily could lead to a further breakdown in relations and prompt retaliatory measures from Mogadishu.

The nature of these potential measures remains unclear, but they could range from diplomatic sanctions to increased border restrictions. This could negatively affect cross-border trade.

Reports indicate that Madobe is scheduled to meet with ambassadors from the international community in Kenya while in Nairobi. These discussions will focus on the ongoing political impasse between Jubaland and the Somali federal government.

Furthermore, the meetings will likely address reports concerning development projects underway in Jubaland.

Following his engagements in Kenya, Madobe reportedly plans to travel to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on an official visit.

This sequence of visits underscores Madobe’s efforts to garner international backing amidst ongoing domestic challenges, including the federal government’s refusal to recognize his re-election.

Jubaland-Federal tensions

The strained relationship between Jubaland and the Somali federal government stems from disputes over constitutional amendments and electoral reforms.

The disputed re-election of Madobe saw the federal government not acknowledge the election results. This later led to the battle of Raaskambooni between Somali forces and Jubaland forces.

Regional Implications

The escalating tension between Somalia and Kenya has broader regional implications. The two countries share a porous border and have historically cooperated on security issues, particularly in combating the Al-Shabaab militant group.

A relationship breakdown could undermine these efforts and destabilize the fragile Horn of Africa region. Kenya has been a key player in the African Union Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM, a regional peacekeeping force supporting the Somali government’s fight against Al-Shabaab.

Jubaland, one of Somalia’s five federal member states, holds strategic importance due to its shared border with Kenya and its access to the Indian Ocean.

The region has been a focal point in the fight against Al-Shabaab. It serves as a buffer zone for Kenya against militant group activities. The region’s port city of Kismayo is a key asset vital for trade and commerce.

Ahmed Madobe, a former Islamic Courts Union (ICU) member and a key figure in Somali politics, has led Jubaland since its establishment in 2013.

He previously served as a governor of Kismayo under the ICU. His administration has faced accusations of authoritarianism and human rights abuses, allegations he denies.