ENTEBBE, Uganda—The African Union’s new mission in Somalia is facing a critical funding shortfall of more than $1 billion, officials warned at a summit in Entebbe, raising fears of a potential security collapse as donors hesitate to commit resources.
Estimates shared at the extraordinary summit show the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)—set to replace the outgoing African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on July 1—will need nearly $1 billion over five years to operate effectively. Another $96 million is required to settle debts from ATMIS, bringing the total funding need to $1.046 billion.
But uncertainty looms over where that money will come from. Traditional donors remain reluctant to make firm commitments, offering only vague assurances — a key concern dominating the summit discussions among heads of state and Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) officials.
Donor reluctance and U.S. rejection
One major setback came from the United States, which made clear it would not fund AUSSOM under UN Security Council Resolution 2719 — a framework allowing partial UN funding for AU peace operations under certain conditions — nor through the proposed hybrid model.
“The U.S. decision regarding AUSSOM funding remains unchanged from last year,” U.S. Ambassador to Uganda William W. Popp said, dimming hopes that Resolution 2719 could unlock needed funds.
“The U.S. will not support applying the [UNSC Resolution] 2719 framework to AUSSOM, as we believe the situation in Somalia is unsuitable for its application. We will also not support the hybrid model of Resolution 2719, as we believe it undermines the essence and purpose of the resolution.”
Other major donors, including the UK and the European Union, were also at the table for the talks.
Bankole Adeoye, the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, outlined the mission’s harsh financial reality. AUSSOM, which began early operations on January 1, already faces $45 million in unpaid costs for January through March, with similar costs expected for April to June — even before the mission officially starts.
“We need $15 million per month… and we do not have that money now,” Adeoye told ministers, adding that most of the funding is for troop stipends. So far, the AU has just $16.7 million available for the year, mainly from the AU Peace Fund, plus $3 million from Japan and $1 million from China — covering only about 8.7 percent of the $190 million needed this year alone.
Adeoye said the $96 million debt from the ATMIS mission piled up between 2022 and 2024, mainly because Somalia requested several “technical pauses” that delayed troop withdrawals.
The total $1.046 billion funding requirement largely covers troop stipends of $1,000 per person per month, as well as death and disability compensation and mission subsistence allowances.
The European Union, historically the largest donor to AU missions in Somalia — contributing about €2.7 billion ($3.07 billion) to previous efforts — said it favored a hybrid model under Resolution 2719, describing it as the most realistic path to sustainable funding.
EU Head of Mission Jan Sadek called for new approaches and greater burden-sharing among donors, pointing out that EU member states already contribute significantly to UN peacekeeping budgets.
The UK, which holds the “penholder” role on Somalia at the UN Security Council, acknowledged the “real funding gap” but said there was “no quick fix.” UK Ambassador Lisa Chesney stressed the need for burden-sharing but did not offer specific funding figures, instead suggesting the AU must address structural and funding mechanism issues first. British officials reportedly confirmed an unspecified UK pledge, though details remain unclear, adding to the sense of uncertainty.
Growing security risks warning
AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf warned that the mission and Somalia’s fragile stability could be seriously threatened without proper funding.
“To consolidate the recovery of liberated territories, we must not fail the transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM,” Youssouf told the summit. “Yes, the mission faces financial constraints… and reluctance remains over implementing Resolution 2719.”
He argued that the mission’s annual cost of $190 million — plus arrears — is minor compared to the devastating costs of renewed insecurity. Somalia’s strategic coastline and the risk of extremist groups like Al-Shabaab filling a security vacuum, he said, could lead to a surge in maritime crime similar to past waves of piracy.
Kenya’s Defence Minister Soipan Tuya highlighted the heavy financial burden already placed on TCCs, whose troops outside the ATMIS framework remain unfunded, with a current six-month funding gap. “Any additional need would place an unbearable financial burden on TCCs,” she warned, noting growing signs of “donor fatigue.” Egypt recently stepped in as a TCC, replacing Burundi after a dispute over troop numbers.
The Somali government also underscored the mission’s importance. Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi said security remains Somalia’s biggest challenge, particularly the fight against Al-Shabaab and the stabilization of recovered areas.
“This is where AUSSOM is indispensable,” he said. “The Somali National Army is growing stronger, but we have not yet reached the point where we can finish this fight alone.”
The warnings come amid a spike in Al-Shabaab attacks in recent weeks, including mortar strikes on Mogadishu and assaults in central and southern Somalia — underlining the persistent threat the group poses to Somalia and the wider region.
As the funding picture remains unclear, the AU is banking on the outcomes of the Independent Strategic Review of the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS), which could help move Resolution 2719 forward and a planned donor conference in Doha. Meanwhile, AU Special Envoy Donald Kaberuka is lobbying for support in Washington.
With AUSSOM’s mandate due to start on July 1, time is running out to secure the funds needed to avoid a new security crisis. A donor meeting led by the UK next month is expected to shape final positions on Resolution 2719 and guide discussions at the UN Security Council, raising the stakes for a timely solution.