Mogadishu, Somalia — Somalia’s plan to hold its first direct elections in over 5 decades is facing a severe political crisis. The standoff threatens to derail the landmark 2026 vote and plunge the nation into a constitutional crisis.
At the heart of the dispute are constitutional changes passed earlier this year that fundamentally alter the country’s political system.
The dispute centres on amendments parliament approved on March 30, 2024. The changes aim to replace the country’s complex clan-based indirect voting system with a universal suffrage model.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government champions the move as essential for democratic progress. However, opponents argue the administration pushed the changes through without the broad consensus needed for such fundamental reforms and accuse the president of a power grab.
Somalia has not held a one-person, one-vote election since a military coup in 1969. For decades, the country has used an indirect system known as the “4.5 formula.” This model allocates parliamentary seats to the four major clans and a coalition of smaller ones.
According to the United Nations, the central sticking point is the opposition’s demand for a consensus-based process to amend the constitution, a demand the government has so far resisted.
Constitutional dispute
The political fallout from the amendments was immediate. President Mohamud signed the four revised constitutional chapters into law.
Just one day later, the powerful semi-autonomous state of Puntland suspended its cooperation with the federal government. Puntland announced it would act independently until both sides reverse the changes through a mutually agreed-upon process.
Puntland and other major opposition figures accuse the president of a power grab. This includes leaders in the southern state of Jubaland, led by Ahmed Madobe.
They argue the president rammed through the changes to centralize power and undermine Somalia’s delicate federal structure. Any alteration to the provisional constitution, they maintain, requires a national consensus.
Talks between the president and opposition leaders failed to produce a breakthrough on August 13.
Former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed recently said President Mohamud “cannot escape the reality” of the situation. He added that “the fateful dispute that exists must be resolved jointly.”
Fractured opposition
The president has achieved a tactical success by weakening the opposition coalition, known as the National Salvation Forum.
In late August, Mohamud reached an agreement with a breakaway faction of four influential figures. The group included former Southwest State president Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan and two former prime ministers, Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo.
This faction broke ranks to support his electoral roadmap. The plan envisions direct elections for local councils and parliamentary representatives at both state and federal levels. The newly elected federal members of parliament would then choose the president.
While the deal gave Mohamud a political victory, the main opposition bloc remains firmly against the plan. This group, led by Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and backed by Puntland and Jubaland, is widely seen as holding more political weight.
They have warned they will not participate in an election held without their agreement, raising the risk of a destabilizing parallel political process.
Security complicates vote
A deteriorating security situation compounds the political instability. The Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab group has exploited the political infighting to launch renewed offensives. The militants have regained significant territory this year, reversing earlier government gains.
Al-Shabaab has recaptured at least five districts and around 30 towns in the central states of Hirshabelle and Galmudug.
Analysts say a lack of sustained political unity has hampered the government’s much-publicized military campaign.
Tensions between Mogadishu and federal states—such as a dispute over forming a new administration in Jubaland’s Gedo region—have diverted resources from the fight against Al-Shabaab. This security vacuum raises serious questions about the government’s ability to secure the country for a nationwide vote.
If the deadlock persists, Somalia may be forced to revert to the contentious indirect electoral model of the past two decades.
International partners, including the United States and the European Union, have warned that their support for the 2026 election is contingent on a broad political agreement among all Somali stakeholders.