CAIRO, Egypt – A simmering geopolitical rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia has erupted into a dangerous proxy conflict on Somali soil, transforming the strategic Gedo region into a new flashpoint for their long-standing dispute.

The struggle, rooted in a bitter disagreement over Nile River water rights, now threatens to engulf the Horn of Africa in a wider, more complex war, with Somalia caught in the crossfire.

At the heart of the escalating tensions is the accusation that Cairo is leveraging a new security pact with Mogadishu to open a new front against Addis Ababa, directly challenging Ethiopian influence in a region it considers its strategic backyard.

In response, Ethiopia has been accused of aggressive military posturing within Somalia’s borders, aiming to neutralize the emerging threat and reassert its dominance.

From water wars to proxy conflict

The rivalry between the two African giants is not new. For over a decade, Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in a diplomatic stalemate over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a colossal hydropower project on the Blue Nile.

Cairo, which relies on the Nile for over 90% of its fresh water, views the dam as an existential threat to its water security. Addis Ababa insists the GERD is vital for its economic development and energy needs, framing it as a symbol of national sovereignty.

This deeply entrenched dispute has now spilled into Somalia. The catalyst was a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in January 2024 between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland.

The deal promised landlocked Ethiopia long-sought naval and commercial access to the sea in exchange for the potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence—a move that an outraged Somalia deemed a “blatant violation” of its sovereignty.

Feeling threatened and isolated, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government turned to Cairo.

A strategic alliance to counter Ethiopia

Seizing the opportunity, Egypt moved swiftly to deepen its ties with Somalia, elevating its relationship to a strategic level. In August 2024, the two nations signed a comprehensive defense and security pact. While the full details remain undisclosed, the agreement is widely seen as a strategic gambit by Egypt to encircle Ethiopia.

Under the pact, Somalia reportedly invited Egypt to participate in the new African Union peacekeeping mission. More significantly, it opened the door for a potential Egyptian military presence in Somalia, including the establishment of bases and the deployment of troops.

For Cairo, establishing a military foothold in the Gedo region, which shares a long and porous border with Ethiopia, would be a significant strategic victory, allowing it to exert direct pressure on Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia’s forceful response in Gedo

Ethiopia has perceived the Somali-Egyptian alliance as a direct provocation. Its response has been swift and forceful, escalating tensions in the Gedo region to a breaking point in recent weeks. According to reports from early August 2025, Ethiopian troops, who have long maintained a presence in the region, have taken several aggressive actions:

• Military Incursion: Ethiopian forces reportedly launched an attack on the Somali government base in the border town of Doolow.
• Sovereignty Violation: Ethiopian commanders allegedly issued an ultimatum for the Somali National Army (SNA) to withdraw from key positions within its territory.
• Bypassing Mogadishu: Ethiopian military officials held direct talks with officials from the semi-autonomous Jubaland State and local clan elders, undermining the authority of the federal government.

These actions are interpreted as a clear signal from Addis Ababa that it will not tolerate a hostile military buildup on its border and is willing to use force to protect its interests.

Somalia caught in the middle

The escalating proxy war has left Somalia in an incredibly vulnerable position. The Turkish-brokered Ankara Agreement of December 2024, intended to de-escalate the initial port deal crisis, has all but collapsed under the weight of the intensifying Egypt-Ethiopia rivalry.

Furthermore, Cairo’s promised military support has yet to materialize fully, leaving Mogadishu diplomatically exposed and facing its powerful neighbor essentially alone.

Critics within Somalia have accused the government of a dangerous miscalculation, arguing that by aligning with Egypt, it has invited a much larger and more perilous conflict onto its territory without securing the necessary guarantees of support.

The federal government in Mogadishu is now under immense pressure to navigate a treacherous path, needing to assert its sovereignty against Ethiopian incursions while managing the risks of being a pawn in a larger geopolitical game.

As the shadow of the Nile dispute lengthens over the Horn of Africa, the fragile peace in the region hangs precariously in the balance.