Mogadishu, Somalia — Somalia’s livestock exports are on track to hit $1 billion this year, seizing a critical market gap left by Australia’s retreat and Sudan’s internal conflict, according to a Bloomberg report.
Government data shows the Horn of Africa nation earned $974 million from livestock last year—nearly double the $523 million recorded in 2021.
For a country grappling with decades of unrest and climate shocks, the boom is a vital economic lifeline. In fact, the expected $1 billion in sales would surpass the government’s total estimated domestic revenue of $430 million for this year.
Livestock is the backbone of Somalia’s economy, supporting more than 60 percent of the population, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Agriculture—driven primarily by livestock—accounts for roughly 75 percent of GDP and more than 90 percent of exports, World Bank data shows. But the industry remains highly vulnerable to the severe, cyclical droughts that regularly hit the region.
Australian ban creates a gap
The main catalyst for Somalia’s surge is Australia’s accelerating withdrawal from the live animal trade to the Middle East. Australia is phasing out its live sheep exports by sea, with a final ban set for May 1, 2028.
The shift follows decades of public concern over animal welfare—intensified by incidents like the 2018 Awassi Express case, when 2,400 sheep died—and culminated in legislation passed in July 2024.
The consequences are already clear. Australian exports have plunged from 5.9 million sheep two decades ago to just 652,000 in the 2022–23 period, according to Australian government figures.
That has opened a major gap in Gulf markets such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where consumers strongly prefer freshly slaughtered meat over chilled or frozen imports.
“Australia, another key supplier to Gulf countries, has reduced exports,” said Qaasim Abdi Moallim, director of animal health at Somalia’s livestock ministry.
Disruption in Sudan
Moallim also pointed to turmoil in another key competitor. “Sudan, once a major livestock-exporting country, is currently facing conflict,” he said. The civil war that erupted in April 2023 has battered Sudan’s economy and disrupted veterinary services and transport routes, UN agencies report.
Even so, the picture is complex. Livestock remains a crucial source of foreign currency for Sudan’s warring factions.
The Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker reported that Sudan’s livestock exports to Saudi Arabia alone were valued at $715 million in 2023—the same year the war began. While Sudan’s trade continues, the disruption there and Australia’s definitive exit have allowed Somalia to secure a more stable foothold in the region.
Somalia is moving decisively to fill the vacuum. “This allowed Somalia to take advantage of the situation and accelerate its livestock exports,” Moallim added. Geography helps: Somalia’s proximity to the Arabian Peninsula cuts transport time and costs to its primary markets.
The scale of the sector is enormous relative to Somalia’s formal economy. Agriculture Minister Mohamed Abdi Hayir says the country has a livestock population of 57 million animals, and Somalia ships between four and six million head to the Middle East each year. That export revenue is critical for the government’s $1.36 billion budget, which is still financed mainly by international donors.
Officials, however, acknowledge the sector’s fragility. The World Bank and FAO have repeatedly warned that Somalia’s pastoral economy is dangerously exposed to climate change, with past droughts causing devastating livestock losses. The current trade boom is a lifeline—but one that will require resilience investments to endure.