Brussels, Belgium — Somalia’s fragile political stability is facing its most severe test in years as a dispute over electoral reforms deepens fractures within the country’s leadership, a new report from the International Crisis Group (ICG) warned on Thursday.
The Brussels-based think tank urged the European Union to intervene immediately to avert a full-blown crisis ahead of the May 2026 national polls, stating that the country’s federal system is becoming “ever creakier.”
The ICG warned that the standoff is creating a dangerous political vacuum, diverting critical attention from the fight against Al-Shabaab insurgents and risking a slide into violence.
At the heart of the dispute is President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s ambitious plan to shift from a complex clan-based indirect election to a universal one-person-one-vote system for the first time in decades.
Somalia’s federal system, established in 2012 to guide its recovery from civil war, has been plagued by ambiguity and mistrust.
The country’s provisional constitution left the allocation of many executive powers to future negotiation. However, the ICG notes that “after more than a decade, Somalia’s politicians have made little progress in divvying them up.”
This failure to answer “perennial questions about the distribution of power and resources leads to heated disputes, particularly around the time of elections.”
Deepening divisions
The proposed electoral overhaul has met stiff resistance from a powerful coalition of opposition figures—including two former presidents and three former prime ministers—and two of Somalia’s most influential federal member states, Puntland and Jubaland.
They argue the central government lacks the security control and institutional capacity to register millions of voters in a country where Al-Shabaab contests vast tracts of territory.
Opponents also fear the new system is designed to benefit the incumbent. They argue his administration “dominates most of the newly established institutions that would carry out the changes, including the electoral commission,” and worry it could provide him with “an excuse to extend his term.”
Puntland, in particular, which the report describes as frequently clashing with what it sees as an “overbearing central government,” wishes to retain its significant power to select representatives sent to Mogadishu.
While the government made significant concessions in the August talks by dropping a plan for the direct popular election of the president, a broader agreement remains elusive. Some opposition members have accepted the revised plan, but others are holding out. ‘
“Any attempt to push ahead with national polls where people in swathes of the country do not participate will deepen divisions between Mogadishu and the federal member states and could lead to violence,” the ICG wrote.
The office of Somalia’s president did not immediately respond to a Somalia Today request for comment sent via email Thursday afternoon.
An urgent call for dialogue
The ICG urged the European Union—described as one of Somalia’s “most steadfast partners”—to leverage its strong relations with the government to resolve the deadlock.
The report called on the EU, in close partnership with the African Union and the United Nations, to “jointly undertake intensive shuttle diplomacy to get the sides to the negotiating table”. As the leading partners in the AU security mission, the three organizations have a vested interest in preventing political collapse.
This mediation should focus on designing a workable, inclusive system that addresses the concerns of all parties. The report specifically recommended fostering sustained talks between the federal government and Puntland to translate constitutional principles into “practical working arrangements.”
The ICG noted that such a dialogue is essential for “overcoming the blockages that prevent the federal government from functioning better.”
The political wrangling has also sidelined other vital reforms, such as increasing women’s participation in parliament, which currently languishes below the 30 percent quota.
Averting electoral unrest is the critical first step toward getting the country out of crisis mode and achieving long-term stability for its “war-weary Somali people,” the ICG concluded.