Three decades have passed since the collapse of the Republic of Somalia, which has now transitioned into the Federal Republic of Somalia, that extends its borders from Djibouti on the North side all the way to the Southern borders at Ras Kamboni, near Kenya. The vast Indian Ocean is on the east, while Ethiopia and Kenya are on the west.
Much has happened in the past decades, and we need not delve so much into that… I gave a brief overview in my previous article, “SOMALIA’S ONLY REMAINING SOLUTION,” which can be found at this link: https://www.caasimada.net/somalias-only-remaining-solution-uae-design/. Meanwhile, the future seems bright.
When we say Somalia or Somaliland, ارض الصومال, people tend to understand that to mean “Greater Somalia,” which encompasses Djibouti, the Somali Region (Ethiopia), Somalia, as well as North Eastern Kenya. Somalia itself, as a country, is divided into 7 federal regions. Three of those states—Puntland, Somaliland, and Jubaland—work as semi-autonomous states, much to the chagrin of regional actors. The three, while having representatives in the main government that sits in Mogadishu, have refused to cooperate and align with the policies of the Government. Somaliland (SL) even went ahead to attempt to secede from Somalia and seek international recognition. So far, no recognition has been forthcoming and it is seen as a renegade—one clan enclave. Even the MOU it signed with Ethiopia seems to have been rescinded, with pundits citing a renewed push by the Somalia Government through mediation by Türkiye sometime in 2024.
THE NITTY GRITTY:
For those who know little of Somali issues, Somalis or the Somali Nation live by a clan system and all speak the same language, have the same cultures, the same religion, and are from the same lineage. All clans respect and work with each other. Each clan has interests and knows its place. No clan is superior to another in the Somali clan system. People who are typically not Somalis per se align themselves with bigger Somali clan systems. All Somali clans live like in a niche, a cocoon-like system.
News reaches all over Greater Somalia like the desert wind, far and wide. Anything that happens in Greater Somalia is analyzed in a clan system scenario. Somalis live amongst each other in Greater Somalia. Someone from Djibouti can be found in Mogadishu (Somalia). One from Hargeisa, SL can be in Mandera (Kenya). Another from Jijiga, Ethiopia is in Bosaso, Puntland, and so on and so forth.
THE ISSUE OF SOVEREIGNTY:
I saw an article this week talking about Somalia’s President Excellency Hassan Sheikh’s overtures—giving strategic ports to the USA. The ports in question are in Northern Somalia, specifically the Berbera and Bosaso ports, and any other port the US administration feels interested in. Somalia is doing that, utilizing its sovereign authority in the international system, and has managed to engage the interested party—the US Trump administration—fully by proposing a strategic port out of their current base in Djibouti. The US was poised to move from its base at Camp Lemonnier to Berbera to maintain closeness to the Arabian Peninsula, for which it has future strategies. It had also complained of China’s military closeness in Djibouti in the past and thus was looking for another location.
Berbera Port, built through Russian Assistance to Somalia in the 1970s, is the second biggest port in Somalia, after Mogadishu, and albeit now in SL, Northern Somalia was seen as a suitable proposition for the US.
Just as the US is interested in Greenland and President Trump has indicated his willingness to engage or take Greenland… Denmark, which controls Greenland, also using its sovereignty processes, has maintained that the USA must pass through the right channels to access it or forget it altogether.
The President of Somalia is also right in making those overtures as he is the legitimate leader of Somalia and has the authority to manage the country the way it is supposed to be.
Somalia is recognized and is a member of the UN, AU, Arab League, as well as IGAD. It has all legal rights to enter into any agreements. All Somalia regions are subjected to the decisions and agreements Somalia undertakes as it is the seat of the Government.
Somaliland, on the other hand, is part of Somalia and cannot dish out anything as it is legally under Somalia’s sovereignty. Ethiopians had realized that too late with their MOU.
The World does not recognize or entertain clan enclaves or tribal schemes disguised as sovereign nations. If that is so, Ethiopia risks breaking easily into nine different countries, and there would be no more Ethiopia. Oromos, 55 million people under OLA, the Oromo Liberation Army, started agitating for self-rule from Ethiopia in 1974. Tigray this week demanded Ethiopia respect its autonomy, and the Amhara region has FANO militia taken over much of its territories. ONLF, on the other hand, is agitating for the Somali region in Ethiopia, and so you see the pattern of risks involved, the precarious situation the Horn of Africa region faces.
It happened before in Yugoslavia, where Kosovo, Serbia, Croatia, and Montenegro sprouted from. That is a dangerous path to follow for sure.
While the African Union was created to safeguard the territorial integrity of African nations, it would be foolhardy to allow interference in Somalia’s predicament and try to dismantle Somalia… because those Somalia states are occupied by clans, and sometimes while one clan operates a region, other neighboring clans may not accept the proposals, and so you will have a complicated way of doing things. For example, Puntland is aligned to the Majerteen clan, and the state Governor is from that clan. Likewise, Somaliland is associated with Isaaq, and the Governor is Isaaq… Jubaland’s Governor is an Ogaden, although many smaller clans live there. All clans must agree on anything.
If, say for example, Somaliland, with less than 1.5 million people, is given recognition under any circumstances from Somalia, what would, for example, Oromos, Tigray, or Amhara do? Or what about other agitating regions in Africa like Biafra, Western Sahara, and Eastern Congo? That is what is at stake here. It would be wise to think through before embarking on projects. That will put the whole region in crisis.
The state department in Washington must do a thorough study of the projects involved and work closely with Somalia to have a win-win situation. Else, it will be cumbersome for them; better they stay in their current Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti.
The Somalia government is therefore right to assume its sovereignty, albeit slowly. It has already signed defense pacts with several countries, including Türkiye and Egypt, as well as having strategic cooperation with Kenya, Djibouti, and Ethiopia. Türkiye already has a direct sovereign agreement on defense to oversee the whole of Somalia’s territory, including Berbera and Bosaso—two main ports in Northern Somalia.
The African Union entity AUSOM has taken a lot of time stabilizing Somalia and needs to create an impetus and hasten the stabilization process so that Somalia joins other countries to manage itself for prosperity.
Somalia, on its side, especially under current President Hassan Sheikh, is putting efforts into securing its territory through Air, Sea, and Land. It has, for example, secured all Air Traffic Control last year, jumpstarted its Central Bank, trained the army/police to an expected level, obtained Debt Cancellation, been appointed as a UN Security Council member, signed defense cooperation agreements, joined the East African Community (EAC), tackled sovereignty issues with Ethiopia, UAE, and Kenya, and is progressing well.
If Ethiopia, UAE, or the USA wants a port, an airport, or investment projects in any region of Somalia, the only legitimate entity to deal with is the Somalia government. The Embassies of all foreign countries know this. The Map of Somalia is affixed in their respective offices.
LASTLY:
Somalia is coming out of civil strife and needs a lot of support. The Somali people have passed through so many difficulties and are rebuilding slowly. They are seeing how much they lost over the three decades of strife and know what is required to be done to be at par with the international system.
They are working their way out of misery, lack of a proper functioning government, lack of political goodwill from its neighboring countries, and daily confrontation with federal regions hindering its growth… but the future looks good. Oil is being explored, and President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud has recently launched bigger projects, and more is yet to come.
Infrastructural projects like Roads, Ports, and Railways are coming in the future, and Türkiye is leading the way. China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE have all shown interest in NEW SOMALIA.
They require no further destabilization after 3 decades.
IBRAHIM ABDI DALAHOW
Mandera, Kenya.
dalahow@gmail.com
