MOGADISHU, Somalia—Somalia is forging closer ties with Russia in a bid to secure its territorial waters and diversify its foreign partnerships. Moscow seeks to expand its strategic footprint in the Red Sea and challenge Western influence in the Horn of Africa.
In recent months, senior Somali and Russian officials have held multiple rounds of talks covering military cooperation, maritime security, arms transfers, and infrastructure investment. Russian military advisers are reportedly being dispatched to Mogadishu, while discussions over port development and energy exploration signal a deepening of bilateral relations not seen since the Cold War.
The move reflects a mutual convergence of interests. Somalia, frustrated with Western aid conditions and facing persistent security threats, is turning to Moscow for direct support. For Russia, Somalia offers a return to a strategically vital coastline with access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the wider Indian Ocean.
Strategic realignment in the Horn
Somalia’s pivot to Russia is motivated by a desire to escape the political constraints tied to Western assistance. The Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democracies Studies notes, “Russian support comes with fewer political strings attached, making it more attractive to governments that want immediate military and economic results without human rights scrutiny.”
The Institute reports that Somalia is particularly interested in enhancing its control over its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which has suffered from illegal fishing and piracy. Russia has reportedly offered naval training, logistical aid, and technical advisors to help develop Somalia’s maritime forces.
Port infrastructure is central to the discussions. According to the Lansing Institute, Russia has expressed interest in accessing key facilities in Mogadishu, Kismayo, and Berbera, all of which could serve as potential bases for naval resupply or dual-use commercial operations.
“Moscow sees Somalia as part of a broader strategic arc across the African coastlines of the Red Sea and Indian Ocean,” the Institute stated in its June 14 report. “This is not only about access—it’s about influence.”
Russia’s renewed interest in Somalia also carries symbolic weight. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union maintained a strong presence in Berbera until its split with the Siad Barre regime in the late 1970s. The new engagement signals Moscow’s return to a former ally and reflects its broader strategy to challenge Western-led regional orders.
Growing unease in the West and Gulf
The expansion of Russian-Somali ties has triggered concern in Washington, Brussels, and Gulf capitals. Western officials warn that Russian arms transfers could undermine the fragile arms embargo imposed by the United Nations and disrupt ongoing counterterrorism cooperation.
According to the Lansing Institute, “the West fears a Somali tilt toward Russia could fracture joint operations against al-Shabaab and compromise intelligence-sharing frameworks.“ Such a shift could also affect U.S.-Africa Command (AFRICOM) partnerships and African Union-led stabilization missions.
Regional rivals are also watching closely. Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar—each with deep economic and security interests in Somalia—will likely respond by increasing their footprint in the country. Analysts believe the Gulf states could expand military aid, investment, or political engagement to counterbalance Russian inroads.
Neighboring powers such as Kenya and Ethiopia may also feel compelled to reassess their regional strategies. “A strong Russian presence in Somalia could tip the security architecture of East Africa,“ the Lansing Institute warns.
The think tank outlines a worst-case scenario in which Somalia becomes part of a loosely coordinated bloc of Russian-aligned African states, similar to Moscow’s relationships with Sudan and the Central African Republic. Though still speculative, the trend has prompted growing concern among Western and African policymakers.
Economic leverage and political calculations
Beyond military cooperation, Somalia is positioning itself to benefit economically from Russian involvement. The Lansing Institute confirms that discussions include access to Somali oil and gas blocks, fisheries, and long-term port leasing arrangements.
These partnerships could offer Somalia much-needed infrastructure development. However, they also risk increasing foreign dependency and reducing transparency in procurement and governance.
With national elections scheduled for 2026, Somalia’s leaders are pressured to deliver on security and development. Aligning with Russia may provide immediate results, but the long-term implications remain uncertain.
Some analysts argue that Somalia is not shifting ideologically but pragmatically. “By engaging Russia, Mogadishu is playing a high-stakes balancing act—leveraging global rivalries to serve its national interests,“ the Lansing Institute concludes.
Still, the rapid pace of engagement has reshaped regional perceptions of Somalia’s foreign policy direction. In the years ahead, whether this partnership evolves into a stabilizing force or a flashpoint in great power rivalry will be determined.