Xogta Doorashada Mareykanka ee Maanta iyo saadaasha natiijada.

By Asad Cabdullahi Mataan

W/Q: Axmed Cali Sheikh
Tifaftiraha Caasimada Online
Minneapolis, Minnesota USA

Haddii sida ra’yi uruurinta dadka ay inoo sheegeyso aysan qaldaneyn, Barack Obama waxaa dib loogu dooran doonaa madaxweynaha dalka Mareykanka, afar sano oo kale.

Sida ay doonto natiijado ha noqoto’e, waxaa la isku raacsan yahay hal arrin, oo ah in doorashadan ay noqon doonto mid ka mid ah kuwii la isugu dhowaansho badnaa ee soo mara taariikhda Mareykanka.

Dhammaan codadka dadka laga qaadayo ee ku saabsan cidda ay dooran lahaayeen, waxa ay gebigood muujinayaan in Obama iyo Mitt Romney ay isku meel joogaan. Waxaa inta badan u dhaxeeya wax aan ka badneyn 1%.

Ra’yi uruurinadii ugu dambeeyay ee la sameeyay marka la isku cel celiyo waxa ay caddeeyeen in labada nin ay kala joogaan 49% iyo 48%, oo madaxweyne Obama uu hal boqolkiiba horeeyo, hase yeeshee xaqiiq ahaan ay isku meel joogaan, marka la eego qaladaadka saadaasha ku jira kara (Sampling error) oo ah waxa u dhaxeeya 2 illaa 3%.

Si kastaba Obama ayaa faa’iido ku heysta gobollada loo yaqaan Battle Ground States, oo natiijadooda ay xukmin doonto cidda noqon doonta madaxweynaha xiga ee Mareykanka.

Dorashada Mareykanka laguma guuleyso codadka guud ee dadweynaha (popular Vote), ee waxaa lagu hantaa wax loo yaqaan Electoral Votes.

Gobol walba waxa uu lee yahay tiro Electoral Vote ah, ayada oo ay ku xiran tahay hadba tirada dadka ku nool gobolka.

Tusaale ahaa, California waxa ay leedahay 55 electoral Vote, halka North Dakota ay ka heystao kaliya 3, sababtoo ah California ayaa ka dad badan North Dakota.

Tartanka xoogiisa ayaa iminka isugu soo ururay gobollo ka yar toban, kuwaasi oo aan weli cid codkooda isku haleyn karta aysan jirin.

Waxa ay kala yihiin Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado iyo Nevada.

Sababta Obama saadaasha u xigtana waxa ay tahay, isaga oo ku horeeya inta badan kuwan aan xusanay ee doorashada go’aamin doona, haba ugu weynaato’e Ohio. Inaksta oo gobollada haray ay ugu Electoral Vote badan tahay Florida, oo ay heysato 29, haddana dagaalka ugu weyn waxa uu ka jiraa Ohio oo heysata 18.

Tirade guud ee loo baahan waa 270 ka mid ah guud ahaa 538-ka Electoral oo uu dalku lee yahay, si musharaxa uu u guuleysto. Obama waxa uu hadda hubaa 237, waxaana uu u baahan yahay kaliya 33 kale, halka Romeny uu heysto 206, oo uu sugayo jid ka dheer kan Obama. Tani waxaa looga qiyaas qaatay, sida labada nin ay ugu kala taageero badan yhiin gobollada dalka.

Ku dhowaad lixdankii sano ee tagay, ma jirin madaxweyne ka yimid xisbiga Jamhuuriga oo la dooraty isaga oo aan ku guuleysan Ohio. Saadaasha waxa ay hadda inoo sheegysaa in Obama uu ku horeeyo Ohio codad dhan 2.8%.

Obama waxa uu sidoo kale ku horeeyaa gobollada Wisconsin, Nevada iyo Iowa, halka Romney uu hogaaminayo Florida, ayada oo New Hampshire iyo Virginia la siman yahay,  inkasta oo Obama wax aan macno lahayn uu ku horeeyo ra’yi uruurinada qaar, hase yeeshee ma jiraan wax damaanad qaad ah, ilaa codadka rasmiga ah ay kasoo baxaan.

Waxaa dhacay olole aad u adag, oo labada nin ay ku kasabanayaan codadka dadka tirade yar ee aan weli go’aan ka gaarin cidda ay u codeynayaan iyo xamaasad gelinta tagaeerayaashooda.

Doorasho kasta waxaa muhim u ah xamaasadda taageerayaasha, sababtoo ah haddii qofku ku siin lahaa codkiisa, uu ka caajiso inuu yimaado cod bixinta, waa ay adag tahay inaad guuleysato.

Romney waxa uu Obama ku eedeyay inuu siyaasado fashilmay dalka ku hagayay afartii sano ee lasoo dhaafay, uuna ka dhabeyn waayay ballan qaadyadii uu sameeyay 2008.

Obama, ayaa dhankiisuna waxa uu yiri “Romney waxa uu dib usoo baakadeynayaa siyaasadihii Bush ee fashilmay, oo uu doonayo inuu mar kale dadka ka gado”

Wax ay ahaataba maanta oo talaado ah ayaa goobaha cod bixinta loo dareeri doonaa, inta ka horeysana wixii saadaal iyo codad ra’yi ah micno ma lahan, oo kuwa dhabta ah ayaa kala reebi doona labada nin.

Sawirkan hoos ka muquda waxa uu ku tusayaa, sida labada nin u kala horeeyaan.

Midabka Buluga ah, waa gobollada Obama uu hubo, halka kuwa Bulug cirka u eg-na ay yihiin kuwa u leexanaya dhanka Obama, Midabka guduudan waa kuwa Romney uu hubo, halka kuwa gudud xigeenka ahna ay yihiin kuwa dhankiisa u socda. Midabka Jaalahana waa gobollada lagu hardamayo ee loo yaqaan Battle Ground State ama Tossup States, ee aan meel u dhicin.