MOGADISHU, Somalia — Somalia’s landmark oil and gas exploration deal with Turkey has sparked intense domestic debate. Critics have raised concerns over the deal’s lack of transparency, revenue-sharing terms, and constitutional oversight, while the government defends it as a strategic step toward economic independence.
The agreement, signed in Istanbul on March 7, 2024, grants Turkey’s state-run Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) exclusive rights to explore and extract hydrocarbons in Somalia’s offshore and onshore blocks. It is the first such contract in Somalia’s history, deepening Turkish influence.
According to the leaked documents, Turkey will receive up to 90 percent of the annual oil and gas output as cost recovery, a standard clause in frontier oil markets. Somalia is expected to receive a royalty of up to 5 percent, with profit-sharing to follow after costs are recovered.
The Federal Government of Somalia also committed to providing TPAO with technical and geological data free of charge and allowing the company to select its exploration zones unilaterally. The contract exempts TPAO from taxation and places its legal jurisdiction in Istanbul.
“This is a historic step. For the first time, Somalia is officially exploring its natural resources,” President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said in a televised statement. “With Turkey by our side, Somalia is charting a new economic future.”
Legal and political pushback at home
The deal has drawn heavy criticism from Somali lawmakers, analysts, and civil society groups who accuse the government of sidestepping legal protocols and giving away too much control.
Abdisaid Muse Ali, a former national security adviser and ex-chief of staff to the president, described the deal as “unconstitutional and opaque.”
“There was no competitive bidding. No consultation with federal member states. No public debate. This is not just bad governance—it is illegal,“ Ali wrote on social media.
Somalia’s 2020 Petroleum Law requires transparency and federal consultation in resource contracts. Critics say the Istanbul deal violates those provisions and undermines the 2018 Baidoa revenue-sharing agreement, which allocates 55 percent of resource revenue to the federal government and 45 percent to federal states and producing communities.
The Parliamentary Committee on Natural Resources has also raised objections, demanding a review of the agreement and greater public accountability.
Despite the outcry, government officials insist the deal was made in Somalia’s national interest. State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Omar said the agreement covers just three 216 potential offshore blocks and will open the door to wider foreign investment.
Mogadishu-based economist Anisa Abdulkadir argued that Somalia cannot independently explore and develop its offshore reserves.
“Upfront oil exploration costs are high, and Somalia doesn’t have the money or technical know-how,“ she told The EastAfrican. “Partnering with a major company like TPAO is standard practice. This is how countries like ours begin.”
She added that Somalia could eventually develop its own institutions to manage natural resources and negotiate more favorable terms in future agreements.
Part of a broader strategic alliance
The oil deal follows a defense cooperation pact signed in February 2024, under which Turkey pledged to help train and equip Somalia’s navy. These moves come amid rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly between Somalia and Ethiopia, which signed a controversial sea access deal in January with Somaliland—an agreement Mogadishu considers illegal.
Already deeply involved in Somalia’s infrastructure, military, and humanitarian sectors, Turkey appears to be expanding its geopolitical footprint. Analysts say Ankara is positioning itself as a long-term strategic ally for Somalia in a region increasingly shaped by rival foreign powers.
The government insists the deal complies with international norms and offers Somalia a path toward energy development. But as exploration activities prepare to begin, authorities face growing pressure to explain the contract’s terms, address legal concerns, and ensure equitable benefits across the country.
“Somalia must walk a tightrope—welcoming foreign investment without compromising sovereignty or the public trust,“ said one regional analyst. “How this deal is managed may define Somalia’s energy future.”
