Mogadishu, Somalia – Somalia’s civil aviation authority has strongly denied reports that commercial flights to South West State have been suspended, dismissing the claims as “political disinformation” as a bitter power struggle deepens.
The clarification on Friday follows days of rampant speculation and alarm in the capital, triggered by an unprecedented breakdown in relations between the federal government in Mogadishu and regional leaders.
The Somali Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA) said commercial passenger services to Baidoa, the administrative capital of South West State, are operating “normally, with no restrictions.”
Jubba Airways, which frequently serves the route using Fokker 50 aircraft, confirmed to Somalia Today that its commercial flights were continuing, though the airline said some services carrying Somali lawmakers had recently faced disruptions.
Earlier in the week, travel agencies reported that commercial flights had been abruptly halted, stranding hundreds of passengers.
While United Nations and humanitarian flights continued to operate, the confusion over civilian air access underscored the acute political paranoia gripping the Horn of Africa nation.
Military escalation
The anxiety over the Baidoa flight route stems from a rapid and highly dangerous militarisation of the political dispute.
The flight rumours coincided with Mogadishu’s decision on Thursday to airlift hundreds of personnel from the elite, Turkish-trained Haramcad police force to parts of South West State.
The contingents landed in Barawa, a coastal city in Lower Shabelle that serves as the official capital of South West State, although the administration currently operates from Baidoa as its interim seat.
Military sources told Somalia Today that the commander of the Somali National Army, General Ibrahim Mohamed Mahmud, received orders late on Wednesday to prepare an additional 1,100 soldiers, drawn from various units, for deployment to the region.
The federal plan reportedly focuses on reinforcing positions in Barawa and securing the corridor stretching towards Buurhakaba in Bay region, where anti-government militias have recently become more active.
Regional leaders viewed the troop deployment as a direct provocation. It came just 48 hours after South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, widely known as Laftagareen, formally suspended all co-operation with the federal government.
Laftagareen accused Mogadishu of actively arming local militias to violently unseat him, and shockingly alleged that federal officials were colluding with the Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab insurgency to funnel weapons to anti-government forces.
Federal officials furiously rejected the claims, with Ports Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur arguing that Laftagareen’s legal mandate to rule in fact expired in December 2022.
A fracturing federation
At the heart of the widening crisis is a sweeping constitutional overhaul pushed through by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Signed into law on March 8, the revised charter replaces Somalia’s clan-based indirect voting system with universal suffrage.
However, critics and regional leaders say the amendments amount to a blatant power grab designed to concentrate executive authority at the centre.
Crucially, the new constitution extends the presidential and parliamentary terms from four to five years, effectively delaying scheduled elections and granting Mohamud an extra year in office.
The unilateral changes have sparked a domino effect of regional rebellions.
The semi-autonomous state of Puntland withdrew its recognition of the federal government in March 2024, while Jubaland severed ties in November over a similar dispute over regional elections.
With South West State now joining the opposition bloc, Mogadishu faces open political revolts from three of its five federal member states.
Historical irony
For Baidoa, located about 245 kilometres (150 miles) north-west of Mogadishu, the standoff carries profound security risks.
The city is a highly sensitive military hub, hosting federal troops and international humanitarian operations in a region chronically battered by drought and militant violence.
The current tensions also revive painful memories of deadly electoral violence steeped in historical irony.
In late 2018, unrest engulfed Baidoa after federal authorities arrested former Al-Shabaab deputy leader Mukhtar Robow, who had defected and was running for the regional presidency.
His arrest sparked violent protests that left at least 11 people dead, clearing the way for Laftagareen, who was then widely seen as Mogadishu’s hand-picked proxy, to take power.
Today, the central government finds itself mobilising elite forces against the very leader it once helped install.
Security analysts warn that if the breakdown in relations disrupts civilian access and diverts military resources to manage a domestic political dispute, it will inevitably create a security vacuum.
Any sustained collapse in coordination threatens to hand Al-Shabaab a major strategic advantage, further complicating Somalia’s already perilous path towards stability.