MOGADISHU, Somalia — Somalia is approaching the final stages of its first-ever offshore oil and gas exploration, conducted in partnership with Turkey, with early results pointing to potentially significant natural gas discoveries.
Two of the three wells drilled in Somali waters have been completed, and initial results, according to sources familiar with the exploration, indicate the presence of commercially viable natural gas. A third well remains under assessment, and the entire exploration phase is expected to wrap up by August 2025.
Preliminary estimates suggest that the two completed wells could contain up to 10 billion barrels of extractable natural gas. Laboratory analysis in Turkey will confirm the volume and quality of the reserves.
Turkey-Somalia energy pact
The exploration stems from a landmark energy cooperation agreement signed on March 7, 2024, in Istanbul by Somalia’s then-Petroleum Minister Abdirizak Omar Mohamed and Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
The deal grants the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) rights to explore and develop hydrocarbon resources off Somalia’s coast.
Under the agreement, Turkey enjoys preferential terms. According to official documents, Ankara can claim up to 90% of the extracted petroleum as “cost recovery,” enabling it to recoup expenses before profit-sharing begins.
Turkey is also exempt from standard payments such as signature bonuses and administrative fees, and it retains exclusive rights to export its share of production at global market rates.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has hailed the deal as a milestone in Somalia’s development.
“This marks the first time in our history that Somalia is officially exploring its oil and gas potential,” he said. “With Turkey’s support, Somalia is on course to transform its economy and global standing.”
Officials in Mogadishu view the energy sector as a crucial pillar for economic growth, employment, and infrastructure development. However, analysts and civil society groups have voiced concerns over the agreement’s generous terms for Turkey and Somalia’s limited immediate financial return.
Ali Omar, Somalia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, described the deal as a gateway to broader economic opportunities. He noted that the current exploration covers only three of the 216 offshore blocks believed to contain hydrocarbons, leaving room for future expansion.
Turkey Expands Influence in the HoA
Turkey’s deepening involvement in Somalia goes beyond energy. The two nations have forged close ties over the past decade through development, education, and defense partnerships.
Turkey operates its most extensive overseas military base in Mogadishu, opened in 2017, and has invested in hospitals, roads, and schools nationwide.
The growing partnership positions Turkey as a key player in the Horn of Africa, a region of strategic importance due to its location along critical maritime trade routes.
Analysts say Ankara’s influence could shape regional dynamics, especially amid Somalia’s tense relations with neighboring Ethiopia over the breakaway region of Somaliland.
Once exploration activities conclude and lab results confirm the reserves, Somalia plans to enter the production phase by late 2025. The government aims to leverage energy revenues to rebuild the war-torn nation’s economy while ensuring transparency and equitable benefit-sharing.
If successful, the project could mark a turning point for Somalia, positioning it as a new entrant in the East African energy landscape — and a test case for how fragile states manage newfound natural wealth.
