LAS ANOD, Somalia – A newly emerging administration in northern Somalia has drawn a firm “red line” in a deepening political standoff with the neighboring Puntland region, intensifying a struggle over land, identity, and legitimacy that could threaten the fragile balance in the Horn of Africa.

The SSC-Khaatumo administration — recently granted interim recognition by Somalia’s federal government — has pushed back forcefully against Puntland’s assertion that it holds sovereignty over the contested Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC) regions.

“While we hold goodwill and brotherhood for Puntland and its people, the self-determination of the SSC-Khaatumo state is a red line,” said Vice President Mohamed Abdi Ismail in a sharply worded statement. “It is unfortunate, the statement from the Puntland Ministry of Interior… No one will be allowed to question the existence of SSC-Khaatumo.”

The pointed words reflect rising tensions in a long-standing regional dispute — one that now risks pulling the federal government in Mogadishu into open confrontation with Puntland, one of Somalia’s oldest and most politically entrenched semi-autonomous states.

Clashing constitutional claims

The latest escalation was triggered by an official statement from Puntland’s Ministry of Interior, flatly rejecting any new administration in the SSC territories that did not fall under its authority. Puntland, formed in 1998, asserts that it has legitimate historical claims over the region, citing the participation of local clans in the founding of the state.

“The Sool and Cayn regions… and the clans that inhabit them were full co-founders of the Puntland State of Somalia,” the statement read, referencing the regional constitution.

In a broader swipe, Puntland accused the federal government of deliberate “interference aimed at undermining the stability and unity of Puntland.” The statement warned of a federal plot designed to destabilize the region and derail its independent security operations against Al-Shabaab and Islamic State (Daesh) militants, who continue to operate in Puntland’s rugged northern highlands.

The SSC regions, lying at a critical geographic crossroads, have been the focus of decades of competing claims. Puntland supports a clan-based federal model, while the self-declared republic of Somaliland claims the territory based on colonial-era boundaries from the former British protectorate.

Caught between these two powerful claimants, the Dhulbahante clan — dominant in Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn — has long resisted control from either side. That resistance erupted into open conflict in early 2023, when fighters in Las Anod drove out Somaliland forces after months of deadly clashes. The violence created a major humanitarian crisis and marked a turning point for local leadership.

Following their military success, clan elders and community leaders announced the formation of SSC-Khaatumo, bypassing both Puntland and Somaliland, and aligned directly with the federal government in Mogadishu. Their move was seen by many as both a political breakaway and a bid for lasting autonomy.

Mogadishu’s strategic gambit

The latest rebuttal from SSC-Khaatumo comes amid a high-level conference currently underway in Las Anod, the capital of Sool. The gathering, which began on July 13, brings together senior federal officials, traditional elders, and civil society figures to finalize the administration’s political structure and lay the groundwork for official federal membership.

Among those attending are Senator Abdullahi Timacadde, Deputy Speaker of Somalia’s Upper House, and Federal Minister of Interior Ali Yusuf Ali (Xoosh), who has been actively engaged in the talks. The agenda includes drafting a regional constitution, building governance systems, and preparing for future elections.

Minister Xoosh hailed the gathering as “the people’s will to determine their future under the federal constitution,” and applauded SSC’s efforts to build legitimacy and stability after years of violence and marginalization.

In October 2023, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government officially recognized SSC-Khaatumo as an interim federal member state. The move was widely viewed as a calculated strategy to counter Puntland’s influence — part of an ongoing power struggle between the central government and federal member states over constitutional authority, control of natural resources, and electoral management.

For Mogadishu, backing SSC-Khaatumo offers not only a new ally in the north but also an opportunity to reassert influence over a contested region. In doing so, it shifts the political dynamics and strengthens the center’s hand in shaping the future of Somalia’s evolving federal system.

But the fallout is growing. As SSC-Khaatumo pushes forward to consolidate its authority and Puntland refuses to back down from its constitutional claims, Somalia’s already fragile federal arrangement teeters on the brink of deeper fragmentation.

What began as a local dispute over identity and governance now threatens to spark a wider crisis — one that could reshape the balance of power across Somalia and test the limits of its federal experiment.