MOGADISHU, Somalia — The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has quietly emerged as the principal architect behind a controversial maritime agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a move that is reshaping the political balance in the Horn of Africa while escalating tensions with Somalia and Djibouti.

Signed on January 1, 2024, the memorandum of understanding (MoU) grants Ethiopia access to a 19-kilometer stretch of Somaliland’s coastline near the port of Berbera. In exchange, Addis Ababa pledged to consider recognizing Somaliland’s long-standing claim to independence from Somalia.

Though officially a bilateral deal, the UAE’s strategic and financial footprint—especially through its state-backed logistics giant DP World, which controls Berbera Port—suggests Abu Dhabi facilitated, if not orchestrated, the agreement as part of a broader campaign to dominate Red Sea maritime routes.

UAE’s strategic port playbook

Over the past decade, the UAE has steadily expanded its influence across the Horn of Africa, investing in ports, military facilities, and transport infrastructure in key coastal regions.

In Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, and Somaliland, Emirati presence has grown under the banner of development and logistics. However, critics say it is ultimately a geopolitical power play.

Djibouti’s President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, in a rare and candid interview in May 2025, accused the UAE of waging a campaign of “disguised colonialism” by using financial leverage and strategic contracts to assert control over vital economic assets.

“The Emiratis have adopted a hostile attitude towards us ever since we refused to bow to their terms,” Guelleh said. “And we will not yield.”

He linked the current crisis to Djibouti’s 2012 decision to revoke a port management concession from DP World, a move that sparked years of legal and political conflict.

Guelleh warned that the UAE’s ambitions now stretch across the region—from Doraleh to Berbera to Assab—threatening Djibouti’s central role in Red Sea trade.

Djibouti: From gateway to sideline

Djibouti has long been Ethiopia’s primary maritime gateway, generating billions in revenue and geopolitical relevance. But the Berbera MoU and the revival of Eritrea’s Assab port—both backed by the UAE—risk bypassing it economically.

To defend its position, Djibouti has:

• Modernized the Doraleh terminal with ultra-large cranes and expanded capacity,
• Dissolved its sovereign wealth fund to block further Emirati influence,
• Strengthened diplomatic ties with Somalia, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to counterbalance UAE-led alignments.

Guelleh’s remarks reflect a more profound concern that Djibouti is being strategically encircled—economically, diplomatically, and militarily.

Somalia pushes back  

For Somalia, the Ethiopia–Somaliland agreement represents a direct assault on its sovereignty. Mogadishu immediately condemned the deal, recalled Ethiopian diplomats, and threatened legal action.

In an attempt to de-escalate the crisis, Somalia and Ethiopia signed the Ankara Declaration on December 11, 2024, brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The declaration reaffirmed mutual respect for sovereignty and opened the door for Ethiopia to explore legitimate maritime access through Somalia’s federally recognized ports.

Following the agreement:

• Ethiopia pledged to negotiate access through official Somali channels,
• Somalia insisted on constitutional adherence in all maritime arrangements,
• Diplomatic engagement resumed with a high-level visit by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Addis Ababa in January 2025.

Despite this progress, Ethiopia has not formally withdrawn from the Somaliland MoU, leaving its legality and future implementation uncertain.

A region redrawn

Analysts say the UAE has built a new geopolitical axis in the Horn—anchored by Ethiopia and Somaliland—that challenges the traditional roles of Somalia and Djibouti.

Billions in Emirati investment have strengthened Ethiopia’s ability to diversify its trade routes and reduce reliance on Djibouti while simultaneously boosting Somaliland’s quest for international legitimacy.

This realignment is also affecting the region’s security calculus. Djibouti and Somalia are now drawing closer to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey—states that view the UAE’s expanding footprint with concern and are backing efforts to preserve Somali unity and regional balance.

The UAE’s behind-the-scenes role in brokering the Ethiopia–Somaliland MoU is not merely diplomatic—it’s strategic. By funding port infrastructure, offering military support, and leveraging regional rivalries, Abu Dhabi is redrawing the map of the Horn of Africa.

For Djibouti, the challenge is economic survival. For Somalia, it is a fight for national unity and sovereignty. And for Ethiopia, it is a quest for long-denied access to the sea.

As these forces collide, the Horn stands at a crossroads—caught between historical alliances and emerging power plays, with the UAE quietly but forcefully pulling the strings.