This article is a rebuttal to the proposition articulated in Abdi Hilowle (Coowle)’s article, published on Caasimada Online on March 6, 2025, titled “Why President Hassan Should Continue Leading Somalia Until Stability is Achieved,” which advocates for the extension of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s tenure beyond constitutional limits. While acknowledging the complex security and governance challenges facing Somalia, this critique, presented from my perspective as Professor Abdinasir Ali Osman, contends that prioritizing an undefined “stability” over established constitutional norms poses a significant risk to the nation’s nascent democratic institutions. Drawing upon international standards of constitutional law and democratic governance, this analysis seeks to dissect the core arguments advanced by Hilowle (Coowle), highlighting the potential ramifications of his proposition for Somalia’s long-term political stability and institutional development.
I. Contextual Framework and Acknowledgment of Presidential Achievements:
It is imperative to begin by acknowledging the tangible progress achieved under President Mohamud’s leadership. Notably, his administration has delivered security gains against Al-Shabaab, reclaimed territories, strengthened national security forces through international coordination, and made significant strides in debt relief, economic reforms, and diplomatic engagement. Progress in education, disaster response, and national identity initiatives also deserves recognition. Specifically, the government has:
- Reclaimed significant territories from Al-Shabaab, weakening their operational capacity.
- Expanded and restructured the Somali National Army and police forces, enhancing coordination with international partners.
- Successfully met conditions for HIPC debt relief, opening avenues for new international financing.
- Improved Somalia’s diplomatic profile in the Horn of Africa and globally.
- Advanced implementation of national ID and digital registration systems.
These achievements are commendable and reflect the administration’s commitment to stabilizing a nation beset by protracted conflict. However, this acknowledgment must be juxtaposed with a rigorous examination of the proposed tenure extension, ensuring that short-term gains do not compromise long-term democratic consolidation.
II. Critique of the “Stability-First” Argument and its Constitutional Implications:
Hilowle (Coowle)’s proposition, predicated on the attainment of “stability,” necessitates a critical analysis of its constitutional ramifications. This analysis posits the following:
- Primacy of Constitutional Integrity: The argument for tenure extension, while presented with patriotic intent, potentially undermines the fundamental principle of constitutional supremacy. The Provisional Constitution of the Federal Republic of Somalia, as the supreme legal instrument, establishes clear parameters for presidential terms and electoral processes. Deviation from these parameters, even under perceived exigencies, sets a detrimental precedent.
- Subjectivity and Ambiguity of “Stability”: The concept of “stability,” as articulated in the article published on Caasimada Online on March 6, 2025, lacks definitional precision. This ambiguity renders it susceptible to manipulation and potential abuse, creating a precarious foundation for extending executive power.
- Institutional Resilience vs. Personalistic Rule: The implicit endorsement of an “indispensability” narrative undermines the development of robust and resilient institutions. Democratic governance necessitates the establishment of durable institutions that transcend individual leadership, ensuring continuity and stability independent of personal tenure.
- Legal Inconsistency: The proposition to extend the president’s mandate is inconsistent with the articles within the provisional constitution relating to term limits and electoral schedules. A legal argument for deviating from these articles is not present within the article published on Caasimada Online on March 6, 2025.
III. Analysis of the Security-Democracy Nexus:
The article’s focus on security as a justification for tenure extension necessitates a nuanced analysis of the security-democracy nexus:
- Security Sector Reform and Legal Compliance: Security gains must be anchored in legal and humanitarian standards. Accountability for human rights violations and the establishment of a professional, apolitical security apparatus are indispensable for long-term stability.
- Electoral Security and Mitigation of Violence: Conducting free and fair elections in a volatile security environment requires meticulous planning and robust security measures. The article should address the practical challenges of ensuring electoral security and mitigating potential violence.
- Preventing Security Vacuums: The article should address how to mitigate potential security vacuums during electoral transitions.
IV. The Roles of Federal Member States and International Actors:
A comprehensive analysis must consider the following:
- Federal-Regional Dynamics: The complex relationship between the Federal Government and Federal Member States is a critical determinant of Somalia’s political stability. Inclusive political dialogue that addresses regional concerns is essential.
- International Influence: The influence of international actors on Somalia’s political processes is undeniable. The article should examine the role of international partners in supporting democratic transitions and promoting good governance, while also critically assessing potential negative influences.
V. Recommendations and Conclusion:
Instead of advocating for tenure extension, Hilowle (Coowle)’s article published on Caasimada Online on March 6, 2025, should have emphasized:
- Strengthening Electoral Institutions: Robust electoral institutions are indispensable for conducting free, fair, and credible elections within constitutional parameters.
- Promoting Inclusive Political Dialogue: Inclusive political dialogue that fosters consensus and addresses the concerns of all stakeholders is crucial for long-term stability.
- Institutionalizing Governance Reforms: Institutionalizing governance reforms, including security sector reform, economic development, and reconciliation efforts, ensures their sustainability beyond individual administrations.
- Emphasis on Dispute Resolution: The importance of robust dispute resolution mechanisms for electoral processes must be emphasized.
In conclusion, while Hilowle (Coowle)’s article published on Caasimada Online on March 6, 2025, highlights the importance of stability, it fails to adequately address the potential consequences of bypassing constitutional processes. As Professor Abdinasir Ali Osman, I contend that true and lasting stability in Somalia can only be achieved through unwavering adherence to the rule of law, the strengthening of democratic institutions, and a commitment to inclusive and accountable governance. This approach ensures that Somalia’s progress is not contingent on the tenure of any single individual, but rather on the enduring resilience of its democratic framework.
Note that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s repeated public pronouncements against term extensions, coupled with his demonstrated commitment to peaceful transitions of power during his prior tenure, have been noted by observers. This track record has contributed to the prevailing understanding that the president remains averse to any deviation from constitutionally mandated term limits.
About the Author
Prof. Abdinasir Ali Osman is a highly respected senior researcher, consultant, and trainer with over 35 years of experience in the humanitarian, development, and institutional capacity-building sectors. His career spans across the private, public, and non-profit sectors, where he has played a critical role in shaping policies, building institutions, and implementing large-scale programs in Somalia and beyond.
As a leading expert in humanitarian, governance, peacebuilding, and development, Prof. Osman has dedicated his life to advancing local capacity, institutional resilience, and sustainable development. His work has influenced policy decisions, empowered young professionals, and strengthened governance frameworks in fragile and conflict-affected environments.
You can reach him through email: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official stance of Caasimada Online or its members.
