Beijing (Caasimada Online) – Markii hore, Mareykanka ayaa weeraray xarumaha nukliyeerka Iran. Kadib, Madaxweynaha Mareykanka Donald Trump ayaa Isniintii ku dhawaaqay xabbad-joojin u dhexeysa Israa’iil iyo Iran, isagoo sheegay in dagaalka uu ugu yeeray “Dagaalka 12-ka maalmood” uu dhammaaday, wuxuuna labada dhinacba ugu baaqay inay muujiyaan dulqaad, xilli warar sheegayaan xadgudubyo dhacay.
Dal si gaar ah uga war hayay xiisaddan kacsan ee juqraafi-siyaasadeed, oo wax badan oo khasaare ah kala kulmi karay dagaalka, isla markaana doonayay inuu saameyn siyaasadeed ku yeesho Bariga Dhexe, ayaa ahaa Shiinaha.
“Shiinaha awood weyn uma laha inuu si toos ah xaaladda wax uga beddelo,” ayuu yiri William Figueroa oo ah khabiir ku xeeldheer xiriirka Shiinaha iyo Iran oo ka tirsan Jaamacadda Groningen ee dalka Netherlands. “Shiinuhu faa’iido uguma jirto dagaal ballaaran oo gobolka ka dhaca, balse awood ciidan oo uu arrintan ku xakameeyo ma laha,” ayuu yiri.
Shiinaha wuxuu aad ugu tiirsan yahay shidaalka iyo gaaska ka yimaada Bariga Dhexe, iyadoo kala bar shidaalka uu Shiinuhu dibadda uga soo dhoofsanayo uu maro marinka Hormuz ee xeebta Iran ku yaalla, sida ay sheegtay shirkadda falanqeysa arrimaha tamarta ee Vortexa. Baarlamaanka Iran ayaa toddobaadkan ka dooday inuu xiro marinka Hormuz, sida ay ku warrantay warbaahinta dowladda Iran.
Iran oo wajahaysa cunaqabateyn adag oo caalami ah, waxay sidoo kale ku tiirsan tahay Shiinaha inuu shidaalkeeda ka iibsado. Shirkadda Vortexa ayaa qiyaastay in bishan Juun Shiinuhu soo dejin doono 1.5 milyan oo foosto oo shidaal ah, kuwaas oo dhammaantood maraya marinka Hormuz.
Waxaa jiray calaamado diblomaasiyadeed oo Shiinuhu toddobaadkan muujiyay; Wasiir ku-xigeenka arrimaha dibedda Liu Bin ayaa Isniintii Tehran kula kulmay safiirka cusub ee Iran u fadhin doona Shiinaha, sidoo kale saraakiil Shiineys ah ayaa Axaddii, iyadoo ay garab ka helayaan Ruushka iyo Pakistan, Golaha Ammaanka ee Qaramada Midoobay u gudbiyay hindise qaraar lagu dalbanayo xabbad-joojin degdeg ah.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Mareykanka ayaa ugu dambeyn ahaa awoodda ugu weyn ee gobolka ka arriminaysay toddobaadkan.
Xitaa markii Washington uu ka codsaday Shiinaha caawimaad, waxaa muuqday in Beijing aysan awoodin ama aysan rabin inay xiisadda faraha la gasho, sida ay khubaradu qabaan.
Axaddii, Xoghayaha Arrimaha Dibedda Mareykanka Marco Rubio ayaa wareysi uu Fox News siiyay ku sheegay in Beijing ay tahay inay Iran ku dhiirrigeliso inaanay xirin marinka Hormuz, isagoo sabab uga dhigay ku tiirsanaanta Shiinaha ee marinkaas iyo inuu xiritaankiisu noqon lahaa “is-dil dhaqaale” oo ay Iran sameysato.
Afhayeenka wasaaradda arrimaha dibedda Shiinaha Guo Jiakun ayaa sheegay in dowladdiisu xiriir la yeelatay dhiggeeda Iran, isla markaana ay diyaar u tahay inay la shaqeyso Iran sidii ay xiriir fiican u yeelan lahaayeen, inkastoo aan la hubin tallaabooyinka la qaaday.
Liu Zongyi, cilmi-baare ka tirsan machadka Shanghai Institutes for International Studies ee xiriirka la leh dowladda Shiinaha, ayaa sheegay in Beijing ay codsiga Rubio u aragtay munaafaqnimo, marka la fiiriyo sida mas’uuliyiinta Shiinuhu u arkeen weerarrada Mareykanka ku qaaday xarumaha nukliyeerka Iran oo ay ku tilmaameen dagaal gardarro ah.
“Mareykanka ayaa dagaalka bilaabay haddana Shiinaha ka codsanaya inuu Iran ku qanciyo in aysan xirrin Hormuz: arrintaasi waa mid aan macquul ahayn oo muujinaysa gardarro cad,” ayuu yiri.
Sidoo kale, “lama hubo in Shiinuhu uu Iran ku qancin karo arrintan,” ayuu yiri Gedaliah Afterman oo khabiir ku ah xiriirka Aasiya oo ka tirsan machadka Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations ee Jaamacadda Reichman ee Israa’iil. “Waxayna xaqiiqdii ka taxaddarayaan inay taas sameeyaan amar ka yimid Washington ama Rubio,” ayuu intaas ku daray.
Shiinuhu wuxuu horey isku muujiyay inuu yahay dhexdhexaadiye nabadeed oo gobolka ah, sida heshiiska uu 2023 dhex dhigay Iran iyo Sacuudiga, iyo heshiiska mideynta kooxaha Falastiin ee 2024.
Hase yeeshee, khubaradu waxay sheegayaan in saamaynta diblomaasiyadda Shiinaha ee Bariga Dhexe ay ahayd mid xadidan, iyadoo joogitaankiisa gobolka uu inta badan yahay mid ganacsi. Mareykanka, dhanka kale, wuxuu aad ugu lug leeyahay siyaasadda iyo militariga gobolka, isagoo halkaas ku leh saldhigyo ciidan iyo isbahaysiyo muddo dheer jiray.
Mas’uuliyiinta Shiinaha ayaa sheegay in ka badan 3,000 oo muwaaddiniintooda ah laga daadgureeyay Iran iyo in ka badan 500 oo kale laga soo saaray Israa’iil. Wasaaradda arrimaha dibedda ayaa baahisay muuqaal cinwaan looga dhigay “Soo noqoshada Guriga,” kaas oo muujinaya dadaalka diblomaasiyiinta Shiinaha iyo dad calammada lulaya.
Liu oo hadalka bixiyay kadib markii Trump uu ku dhawaaqay xabbad-joojinta balse ka hor inta aan lagu eedeyn dhinacyadu inay jebiyeen heshiiska, ayaa sheegay: “Waxa dhici karta in Shiinuhu Iran siiyo kaalmo bani’aadannimo, balse intaas ka badan ma muuqato tallaabo kale oo Shiinuhu qaadayo.”
Si loo muujiyo sida Beijing uga walaacsan tahay xaaladda marinka Hormuz, ururka ay leedahay dowladda Shiinaha ee iskaashatada maraakiibta ayaa amar ku bixiyay in shirkadaha maraakiibta ay maalin walba warbixin ka soo diraan maraakiibta maraya marinkaasi iyo biyaha ku xeeran.
Si kastaba, Shiinaha ayaa sidoo kale heysta ilo kale oo shidaal ah sida Ruushka, wuxuuna isku dayayay inuu abuuro marino cusub oo lagu soo dejiyo shidaalka muhiimka ah. Dekedda Gwadar ee dalka Pakistan ayaa kamid ah meelaha muhiimka u ah qorshahaas, balse Liu ayaa sheegay in dekeddaasi aysan wali noqon karin beddelka marinka Hormuz, maadaama aysan lahayn awood maareyn iyo keydin shidaal ku filan.
Dhanka kale, Beijing ayaa si dhow ula socota tallaabooyinka Trump oo ay ka raadinayso tilmaamo ku saabsan sida Mareykanku u wajahayo siyaasadda caalamka, gaar ahaan Taiwan. Trump oo awood milatari adeegsanaya ayaa laga yaabaa inay Beijing dareento in Mareykanku diyaar u yahay inuu jawaab militari ka bixiyo haddii Shiinuhu isku dayo inuu Taiwan weeraro.
Falanqeeyayaasha kale ayaa qabaa in ku lug lahaanshaha Mareykanka ee Bariga Dhexe uu ka mashquulin karo Washington xiisadda kala dhaxeysa Shiinaha ee ganacsiga, iyadoo khabiirka Maxamed Alsudairi sheegay in awoodda siyaasadeed iyo istaraatijiyadeed ee Mareykanku ay xadidan tahay.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, adeegsigii Mareykanka ee awoodda milatari iyo ka maqnaanta awooddaas ee Shiinaha ayaa Beijing ka caawin karta inuu isku muujiyo awood caqli badan oo adduunka ah, sida uu sheegay John Delury oo ka tirsan Asia Society. Delury ayaa yiri, “Mareykanka oo dagaallo aan dadku rabin ku lug leh wuxuu u sahlayaa Xi Jinping inuu Shiinaha u muujiyo awood diblomaasiyadeed oo xalkeedu wada-xaajood yahay.”